Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) Fair Value 2026

MITK · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) trades at $19.21, versus a $9.46 median fair value across its 10 active models — 50.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $21.85.

Key Facts

Ticker
MITK
Price
$19.21
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +13.7% upside with 68% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $9.46, 50.8% below the current price of $19.21. Estimates range from $2.14 to $21.85. MITK scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MITK’s -50.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mitek Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MITK?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.85 +13.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.98 -84.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.27 -46.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $8.51 -55.7%
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What Is MITK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $2.14 to $21.85

CirclFi's 10 active models place Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) between $2.14 and $21.85 per share, a spread of 208% of the median. The median of that range — $9.46 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MITK, against a current price of $19.21.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$2.14median $9.46$21.85
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.14
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$21.85
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MITK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MITK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mitek Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $9.46, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $19.21. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-50.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $21.85 (+13.7%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $2.14 (-88.9%). This +102.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Mitek Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MITK?

10 of 13 models are currently active for MITK. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MITK is $9.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $21.85 on its own, implying +13.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MITK Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, MITK ranks #54 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places MITK in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a technology sector, Mitek Systems, Inc. operates in a sector where net revenue retention (NRR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MITK should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MITK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MITK a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Mitek Systems, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Mitek Systems, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.3/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +102.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MITK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MITK's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mitek Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

GWREGuidewire Software, Inc.QOC 8.4LIFLife360, Inc.QOC 8.3BLBlackLine, Inc.QOC 8.4VTEXVTEXQOC 8.3IDNIntellicheck, Inc.QOC 8.5DFINDonnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.3EXFYExpensify, Inc.QOC 6.9FTFTFuture FinTech Group Inc.QOC 5.2YALAYalla Group LimitedQOC 2.9ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: GWRE · LIF · BL · VTEX · IDN · DFIN · EXFY · FTFT · YALA · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MITK?

7 companies across all industries closest to MITK’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

NUTXNutex Health Inc.QOC 8.4SMBKSmartFinancial, Inc.QOC 8.3TTCThe Toro CompanyQOC 8.4SFBSServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3RRXRegal Rexnord CorporationQOC 8.4ASBAssociated Banc-CorpQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NUTX · SMBK · TTC · SFBS · RRX · ASB · NVDA

Where Does MITK Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

MITK is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mitek Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mitek Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK)'s intrinsic value at $9.46 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.14 to $21.85. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $21.85 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MITK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.21, 1 of 10 active models suggest MITK may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $9.46, 50.8% below the current price of $19.21 — a consensus view that MITK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mitek Systems, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for MITK?

Mitek Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MITK?

CirclFi analyzes MITK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MITK?

Of the 10 models currently active on MITK, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $21.85 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.14. CirclFi's published fair value for MITK is the median of that range, $9.46, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 208% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MITK a value trap in 2026?

Mitek Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) has a median fair value of $9.46 — 50.8% below the current price of $19.21 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MITK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MITK valuation
  • Financial statements: Mitek Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000807863) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MITK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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