SNDL Inc. (SNDL) Fair Value 2026

SNDL · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, SNDL Inc. (SNDL) trades at $1.35, versus a $2.34 median fair value across its 6 active models — 73.0% above the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.44.

Key Facts

Ticker
SNDL
Price
$1.35
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +176.4% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is SNDL Inc. (SNDL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, SNDL Inc. (SNDL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $2.34, 73.0% above the current price of $1.35. Estimates range from $0.24 to $3.75. SNDL scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SNDL’s +73.0% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SNDL Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SNDL?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.44 +153.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.38 +75.9%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $3.75 +176.4%
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What Is SNDL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $0.24 to $3.75

CirclFi's 6 active models place SNDL Inc. (SNDL) between $0.24 and $3.75 per share, a spread of 150% of the median. The median of that range — $2.34 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SNDL, against a current price of $1.35.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · First Chicago
$0.24median $2.34$3.75
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$0.24
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$3.75
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SNDL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SNDL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SNDL Inc. (SNDL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SNDL Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.34, suggesting a +73.0% median upside from the current price of $1.36. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $3.75 (+176.4%), versus Regime Cross at $0.24 (-82.4%). This +258.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SNDL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for SNDL. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SNDL is $2.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.44 on its own, implying +153.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SNDL Rank in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries?

Among 12 Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, SNDL ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

As a consumer-facing company, SNDL Inc. operates in a sector where inventory turnover is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SNDL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SNDL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SNDL a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for SNDL Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, SNDL Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +258.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SNDL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SNDL's 6 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SNDL Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks with 13-model coverage

DEODiageo plcQOC 7.4CWGLCrimson Wine Group, Ltd.QOC 7.3AGCCAgencia Comercial Spirits LtdQOC 6.9MGPIMGP Ingredients, Inc.QOC 6.8WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc.QOC 6.2YHCLQR House Inc.QOC 4.7MDWKMDwerks, Inc.QOC 4.2SBEVSplash Beverage Group IncQOC 4.0AMSSAMASS Brands, Inc.QOC 3.2IBGInnovation Beverage Group LimitedQOC 2.5EPSMEpsium Enterprise LimitedQOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: DEO · CWGL · AGCC · MGPI · WVVI · YHC · MDWK · SBEV · AMSS · IBG · EPSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SNDL?

7 companies across all industries closest to SNDL’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

ARXAccelerant HoldingsQOC 6.1XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.QOC 6.1NIHKVideo River Networks, Inc.QOC 6.1GNSSGenasys Inc.QOC 6.1COTYCoty Inc.QOC 6.1SILOSilo Pharma, Inc.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ARX · XPOF · NIHK · GNSS · COTY · SILO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About SNDL Inc.’s Valuation?

What is SNDL Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SNDL Inc. (SNDL)'s intrinsic value at $2.34 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.24 to $3.75. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.44 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SNDL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.35, 4 of 6 active models suggest SNDL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $2.34, 73.0% above the current price of $1.35 — a consensus view that SNDL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SNDL Inc.'s business model in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for SNDL?

SNDL Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SNDL?

CirclFi analyzes SNDL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SNDL?

Of the 6 models currently active on SNDL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $3.75 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $0.24. CirclFi's published fair value for SNDL is the median of that range, $2.34, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 150% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SNDL a value trap in 2026?

SNDL Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, SNDL Inc. (SNDL) has a median fair value of $2.34 — 73.0% above the current price of $1.35 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SNDL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SNDL valuation
  • Financial statements: SNDL Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001766600) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SNDL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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