SNDL Inc. (SNDL) Fair Value 2026

SNDL · Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (37/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, SNDL Inc. (SNDL) trades at $1.31, approximately 43% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.30. QOC: 5.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 37/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SNDL
Price
$1.31
Quality Score
5.5/10
Value Trap Risk
37/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +166.3% upside with 21% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$2.30 +75.8%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$3.49 +166.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$3.19 +143.2%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
$1.79 +36.3%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is SNDL Inc. (SNDL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SNDL Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $1.31. Based on our 13-model framework, SNDL Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $2.99 — representing +128.1% implied upside — with 10 out of 11 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $6.18 (+372.1%), versus PWERM at $1.27 (-2.8%). This +374.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SNDL?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SNDL. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SNDL's intrinsic value at $2.30, implying +75.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SNDL Rank in Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products?

Among 17 Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products stocks, SNDL ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

As a industrial enterprise, SNDL Inc. operates in a sector where order backlog depth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SNDL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SNDL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SNDL a score of 37/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for SNDL Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, SNDL Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +374.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SNDL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SNDL's 11 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SNDL Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: NAGE · FTLF · USNA · BTMD · TLRY

Frequently Asked Questions About SNDL Inc.

What is SNDL Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, SNDL Inc. (SNDL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.30. The Quality of Company score is 5.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SNDL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.31, 10 of 11 active models suggest SNDL may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SNDL Inc.'s business model in Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.5 mean for SNDL?

SNDL Inc.'s QOC of 5.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SNDL?

CirclFi analyzes SNDL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SNDL a value trap in 2026?

SNDL Inc.'s Value Trap score is 37/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on SNDL.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access