Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) Fair Value 2026

TLRY · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) trades at $4.59, versus a $11.34 median fair value across its 3 active models — 147.0% above the current price. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TLRY
Price
$4.59
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +204.6% upside with 35% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $11.34, 147.0% above the current price of $4.59. Estimates range from $0.28 to $13.98. TLRY scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TLRY’s +147.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tilray Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TLRY?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.28 -93.8%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $13.98 +204.6%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $11.34 +147.0%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is TLRY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.28 to $13.98

CirclFi's 3 active models place Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) between $0.28 and $13.98 per share, a spread of 121% of the median. The median of that range — $11.34 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TLRY, against a current price of $4.59.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$0.28median $11.34$13.98
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.28
Most bullish modelPWERM$13.98
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TLRY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TLRY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tilray Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $11.34. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $4.59 (implied upside of +147.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 2 of 3 bullish models. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +204.6% (fair value: $13.98), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -93.8% ($0.28). The spread between these extremes — +298.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TLRY?

3 of 13 models are currently active for TLRY. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TLRY is $11.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TLRY Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, TLRY ranks #60 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

As a healthcare company, Tilray Brands, Inc. operates in a sector where patent cliff exposure is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TLRY should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TLRY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TLRY a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Tilray Brands, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tilray Brands, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +298.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TLRY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TLRY's 3 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tilray Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

AQSTAquestive Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.0LFCRLifecore Biomedical, Inc.QOC 5.9CABRCaring Brands, Inc.QOC 6.0PRGOPerrigo Company plcQOC 5.9VTRSViatris Inc.QOC 6.0CBDYTarget Group Inc.QOC 5.8PNXPPineapple Express Cannabis CompanyQOC 4.7LNTHLantheus Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3TAKTakeda Pharmaceutical Company LimitedQOC 7.0UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: AQST · LFCR · CABR · PRGO · VTRS · CBDY · PNXP · LNTH · TAK · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TLRY?

7 companies across all industries closest to TLRY’s Quality of Company score of 5.9/10.

DUKRDUKE Robotics Corp.QOC 5.9HTLMHomesToLife Ltd.QOC 5.9MACThe Macerich CompanyQOC 5.9ARKRArk Restaurants Corp.QOC 5.9FNGRFingerMotion, Inc.QOC 5.9EYPTEyePoint, Inc.QOC 5.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DUKR · HTLM · MAC · ARKR · FNGR · EYPT · NVDA

Where Does TLRY Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

TLRY is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tilray Brands, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tilray Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY)'s intrinsic value at $11.34 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.28 to $13.98. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TLRY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.59, 2 of 3 active models suggest TLRY may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $11.34, 147.0% above the current price of $4.59 — a consensus view that TLRY is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tilray Brands, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for TLRY?

Tilray Brands, Inc.'s QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TLRY?

CirclFi analyzes TLRY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TLRY?

Of the 3 models currently active on TLRY, PWERM is the most bullish at $13.98 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.28. CirclFi's published fair value for TLRY is the median of that range, $11.34, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 121% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TLRY a value trap in 2026?

Tilray Brands, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) has a median fair value of $11.34 — 147.0% above the current price of $4.59 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TLRY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TLRY valuation
  • Financial statements: Tilray Brands, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001731348) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TLRY as of ; valuations recomputed .