Mannatech, Incorporated (MTEX) Fair Value 2026

MTEX · Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Mannatech, Incorporated (MTEX) trades at $4.74, approximately 62% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $12.34. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MTEX
Price
$4.74
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +345.8% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$12.34 +160.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$4.83 +1.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$14.05 +196.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$21.13 +345.8%

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What Is Mannatech, Incorporated (MTEX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Mannatech, Incorporated at $4.74. With an estimated intrinsic value of $12.73 and 8 of 11 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +168.7%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $27.77 (+485.8%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.61 (-66.0%). This +551.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Mannatech, Incorporated's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MTEX?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MTEX. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MTEX's intrinsic value at $12.34, implying +160.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MTEX Rank in Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products?

Among 17 Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products stocks, MTEX ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

The Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For Mannatech, Incorporated, metrics like organic revenue growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MTEX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MTEX a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Mannatech, Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mannatech, Incorporated scores 6.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +551.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MTEX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MTEX's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mannatech, Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Mannatech, Incorporated

What is Mannatech, Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Mannatech, Incorporated (MTEX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $12.34. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MTEX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.74, 9 of 11 active models suggest MTEX may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mannatech, Incorporated's business model in Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for MTEX?

Mannatech, Incorporated's QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MTEX?

CirclFi analyzes MTEX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MTEX a value trap in 2026?

Mannatech, Incorporated's Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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