Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) Fair Value 2026

TRC · Conglomerates ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (35/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) trades at $16.20, versus a $5.05 median fair value across its 3 active models — 68.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 35/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TRC
Price
$16.20
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
35/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $5.05, 68.9% below the current price of $16.20. Estimates range from $3.33 to $6.24. TRC scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 35/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TRC’s -68.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Conglomerates sector median is -20.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tejon Ranch Co. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TRC?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $5.05 -68.9%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $6.24 -61.5%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $3.33 -79.5%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is TRC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $3.33 to $6.24

CirclFi's 3 active models place Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) between $3.33 and $6.24 per share, a spread of 58% of the median. The median of that range — $5.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TRC, against a current price of $16.20.

Low · FTNNHigh · Dynamic NAV
$3.33median $5.05$6.24
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$3.33
Most bullish modelDynamic NAV$6.24
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TRC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tejon Ranch Co.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $5.05, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $16.20. With 3 out of 3 models flagging downside (-68.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About TRC?

3 of 13 models are currently active for TRC. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for TRC is $5.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TRC Rank in Conglomerates?

Among 31 Conglomerates stocks, TRC ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

As a industrial enterprise, Tejon Ranch Co. operates in a sector where capacity utilization rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TRC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TRC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TRC a score of 35/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Tejon Ranch Co.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Tejon Ranch Co. is rated at 6.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

Models cluster within a tight range (+18.0% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TRC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TRC's 3 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tejon Ranch Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Conglomerates Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Conglomerates stocks with 13-model coverage

HHSHarte Hanks, Inc.QOC 6.2NNBRNN, Inc.QOC 5.7CODICompass DiversifiedQOC 6.2FBYDFalcon's Beyond Global, Inc.QOC 5.5LGPSLogProstyle Inc.QOC 6.3TUSKMammoth Energy Services, Inc.QOC 5.2ATVKGlobalTek Ventures, Inc.QOC 4.7OTTROtter Tail CorporationQOC 8.6BOOMDMC Global Inc.QOC 7.2VMIValmont Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: HHS · NNBR · CODI · FBYD · LGPS · TUSK · ATVK · OTTR · BOOM · VMI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TRC?

7 companies across all industries closest to TRC’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

AIDX20/20 Biolabs, Inc.QOC 6.0CURVTorrid Holdings Inc.QOC 6.0VTRSViatris Inc.QOC 6.0VALNValneva SEQOC 6.0MNTRMentor Capital, Inc.QOC 6.0DKIDarkiris Inc.QOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AIDX · CURV · VTRS · VALN · MNTR · DKI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tejon Ranch Co.’s Valuation?

What is Tejon Ranch Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC)'s intrinsic value at $5.05 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.33 to $6.24. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TRC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.20, 0 of 3 active models suggest TRC may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $5.05, 68.9% below the current price of $16.20 — a consensus view that TRC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tejon Ranch Co.'s business model in Conglomerates.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for TRC?

Tejon Ranch Co.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TRC?

CirclFi analyzes TRC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TRC?

Of the 3 models currently active on TRC, Dynamic NAV is the most bullish at $6.24 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $3.33. CirclFi's published fair value for TRC is the median of that range, $5.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 58% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TRC a value trap in 2026?

Tejon Ranch Co.'s Value Trap score is 35/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) has a median fair value of $5.05 — 68.9% below the current price of $16.20 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TRC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TRC valuation
  • Financial statements: Tejon Ranch Co. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000096869) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TRC as of ; valuations recomputed .