Valneva SE (VALN) Fair Value 2026

VALN · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Valneva SE (VALN) trades at $6.56, versus a $6.03 median fair value across its 2 active models — 8.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VALN
Price
$6.56
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +9.8% upside with 43% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Valneva SE (VALN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Valneva SE (VALN) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $6.03, within 8.1% of the current price of $6.56. Estimates range from $4.85 to $7.20. VALN scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VALN’s -8.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Valneva SE Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VALN?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $7.20 +9.8%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $4.85 -26.1%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Valneva SE (VALN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Valneva SE presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $6.56. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $6.03 (-8.1% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $7.20 (+9.8%), versus FTNN at $4.85 (-26.1%). This +35.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About VALN?

2 of 13 models are currently active for VALN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VALN is $6.03 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VALN Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, VALN ranks #143 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Within the Biotechnology space, Valneva SE competes in an environment where pipeline depth and stage distribution often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is VALN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VALN a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Valneva SE. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Valneva SE is rated at 6.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +35.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VALN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VALN's 2 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Valneva SE Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

LPCNLipocine Inc.QOC 6.1PRQRProQR Therapeutics N.V.QOC 6.0INMBINmune Bio Inc.QOC 6.1ALECAlector, Inc.QOC 6.0TSHATaysha Gene Therapies, Inc.QOC 6.1KURAKura Oncology, Inc.QOC 6.0FULCFulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.1HOWLWerewolf Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.5VRAXVirax Biolabs Group LimitedQOC 2.3EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: LPCN · PRQR · INMB · ALEC · TSHA · KURA · FULC · HOWL · VRAX · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VALN?

7 companies across all industries closest to VALN’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

TRCTejon Ranch Co.QOC 6.0VTRSViatris Inc.QOC 6.0CURVTorrid Holdings Inc.QOC 6.0DKIDarkiris Inc.QOC 6.0AIDX20/20 Biolabs, Inc.QOC 6.0BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TRC · VTRS · CURV · DKI · AIDX · BWIN · NVDA

Where Does VALN Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

VALN is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Valneva SE’s Valuation?

What is Valneva SE's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Valneva SE (VALN)'s intrinsic value at $6.03 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $4.85 to $7.20. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VALN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.56, 1 of 2 active models suggest VALN may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $6.03, within 8.1% of the current price of $6.56 — a consensus view that VALN is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Valneva SE's business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for VALN?

Valneva SE's QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VALN?

CirclFi analyzes VALN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is VALN a value trap in 2026?

Valneva SE's Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Valneva SE (VALN) has a median fair value of $6.03 — within 8.1% of the current price of $6.56 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VALN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VALN valuation
  • Financial statements: Valneva SE 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001836564) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VALN as of ; valuations recomputed .