Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) Fair Value 2026

OTTR · Conglomerates ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) trades at $90.84, versus a $63.78 median fair value across its 12 active models — 29.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $74.69.

Key Facts

Ticker
OTTR
Price
$90.84
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $63.78, 29.8% below the current price of $90.84. Estimates range from $27.71 to $122.74. OTTR scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. OTTR’s -29.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Conglomerates sector median is -20.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Otter Tail Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OTTR?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($90.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.69 -17.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $73.17 -19.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $58.83 -35.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $58.41 -35.7%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is OTTR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $27.71 to $122.74

CirclFi's 12 active models place Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) between $27.71 and $122.74 per share, a spread of 149% of the median. The median of that range — $63.78 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OTTR, against a current price of $90.84.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$27.71median $63.78$122.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$27.71
Most bullish modelPWERM$122.74
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OTTR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OTTR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Otter Tail Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $63.78, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $90.84. With 10 out of 12 models flagging downside (-29.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $122.74 (+35.1%), versus Regime Cross at $27.71 (-69.5%). This +104.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OTTR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for OTTR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OTTR is $63.78 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $74.69 on its own, implying -17.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OTTR Rank in Conglomerates?

Among 31 Conglomerates stocks, OTTR ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places OTTR in the top tier.

As a industrial enterprise, Otter Tail Corporation operates in a sector where order backlog depth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating OTTR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is OTTR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OTTR a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Otter Tail Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Otter Tail Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +104.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OTTR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OTTR's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Otter Tail Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Conglomerates Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Conglomerates stocks with 13-model coverage

VMIValmont Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0DLXDeluxe CorporationQOC 8.3MAMKMaxsMaking Inc.QOC 2.6HONHoneywell International Inc.QOC 8.3PAMPampa Energía S.A.QOC 2.7RCMTRCM Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.3MMM3M CompanyQOC 7.5HHSHarte Hanks, Inc.QOC 6.2ATVKGlobalTek Ventures, Inc.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: VMI · DLX · MAMK · HON · PAM · RCMT · MMM · HHS · ATVK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OTTR?

7 companies across all industries closest to OTTR’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

SRCE1st Source CorporationQOC 8.6FLXSFlexsteel Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6UNPUnion Pacific CorporationQOC 8.6FINVFinVolution GroupQOC 8.6URIUnited Rentals, Inc.QOC 8.6TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur S.A.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SRCE · FLXS · UNP · FINV · URI · TGS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Otter Tail Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Otter Tail Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR)'s intrinsic value at $63.78 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $27.71 to $122.74. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $74.69 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OTTR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $90.84, 1 of 12 active models suggest OTTR may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $63.78, 29.8% below the current price of $90.84 — a consensus view that OTTR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Otter Tail Corporation's business model in Conglomerates.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for OTTR?

Otter Tail Corporation's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OTTR?

CirclFi analyzes OTTR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OTTR?

Of the 12 models currently active on OTTR, PWERM is the most bullish at $122.74 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $27.71. CirclFi's published fair value for OTTR is the median of that range, $63.78, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 149% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OTTR a value trap in 2026?

Otter Tail Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) has a median fair value of $63.78 — 29.8% below the current price of $90.84 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OTTR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OTTR valuation
  • Financial statements: Otter Tail Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001466593) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OTTR as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on OTTR.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for OTTR Unlock All 12 — $39/mo