Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) Fair Value 2026

ALLY · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) trades at $42.18, versus a $41.36 median fair value across its 6 active models — 2.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALLY
Price
$42.18
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +5.9% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $41.36, within 2.0% of the current price of $42.18. Estimates range from $18.20 to $94.49. ALLY scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ALLY’s -2.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ally Financial Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALLY?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($42.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $44.67 +5.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $38.04 -9.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.20 -56.9%
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What Is ALLY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $18.20 to $94.49

CirclFi's 6 active models place Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) between $18.20 and $94.49 per share, a spread of 184% of the median. The median of that range — $41.36 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALLY, against a current price of $42.18.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$18.20median $41.36$94.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$18.20
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$94.49
Model agreement3 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALLY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALLY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ally Financial Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $41.36, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $42.18. While the median implied return is -2.0%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +180.9% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $94.49 (+124.0%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $18.20 (-56.9%). This +180.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ally Financial Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALLY?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ALLY. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALLY is $41.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALLY Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, ALLY ranks #34 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

Ally Financial Inc.'s positioning within the Credit Services segment means that non-performing loan ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ALLY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALLY a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Ally Financial Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ally Financial Inc. earns a quality score of 7.1/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +180.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALLY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALLY's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ally Financial Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

HTTHigh Templar Tech LimitedQOC 7.2AGMFederal Agricultural Mortgage CorporationQOC 7.0GDOTGreen Dot CorporationQOC 7.3SLMSLM CorporationQOC 7.0AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.4YRDYiren Digital Ltd.QOC 7.0VRMVroom, Inc.QOC 5.0SYFSynchrony FinancialQOC 8.9ECPGEncore Capital Group, Inc.QOC 7.8JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: HTT · AGM · GDOT · SLM · AFRM · YRD · VRM · SYF · ECPG · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALLY?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALLY’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

MCSThe Marcus CorporationQOC 7.1DHXDHI Group, Inc.QOC 7.1SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1CVGICommercial Vehicle Group, Inc.QOC 7.1EPMEvolution Petroleum CorporationQOC 7.1CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MCS · DHX · SWX · CVGI · EPM · CDRO · NVDA

Where Does ALLY Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

ALLY is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ally Financial Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ally Financial Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)'s intrinsic value at $41.36 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $18.20 to $94.49. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALLY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $42.18, 3 of 6 active models suggest ALLY may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $41.36, within 2.0% of the current price of $42.18 — a consensus view that ALLY is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ally Financial Inc.'s business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for ALLY?

Ally Financial Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALLY?

CirclFi analyzes ALLY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALLY?

Of the 6 models currently active on ALLY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $94.49 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $18.20. CirclFi's published fair value for ALLY is the median of that range, $41.36, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 184% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALLY a value trap in 2026?

Ally Financial Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) has a median fair value of $41.36 — within 2.0% of the current price of $42.18 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALLY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALLY valuation
  • Financial statements: Ally Financial Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000040729) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALLY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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