Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM) Fair Value 2026

AGM · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM) trades at $198.88. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AGM
Price
$198.88
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +308.1% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($198.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$103.76 -47.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$527.06 +165.0%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
$811.65 +308.1%
ML-RIV
Medium Conviction
$548.90 +176.0%

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What Is Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Federal Agricultural Mortgage C's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $446.54, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $198.88. While the average implied return is +124.5%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +472.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $1,043.12 (+424.5%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $103.76 (-47.8%). This +472.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Federal Agricultural Mortgage C's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AGM?

8 of 13 models are currently active for AGM. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AGM Rank in Credit Services?

Among 3 Credit Services stocks, AGM ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Credit Services space, Federal Agricultural Mortgage C competes in an environment where return on tangible equity often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AGM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGM a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Federal Agricultural Mortgage C. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Federal Agricultural Mortgage C's fundamental quality profile registers 7.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +472.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AGM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AGM's 8 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Federal Agricultural Mortgage C Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ALLY · AFRM

Frequently Asked Questions About Federal Agricultural Mortgage C

What is Federal Agricultural Mortgage C's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AGM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $198.88, 5 of 8 active models suggest AGM may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Federal Agricultural Mortgage C's business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for AGM?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage C's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AGM?

CirclFi analyzes AGM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AGM a value trap in 2026?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage C's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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