Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) Fair Value 2026

AGM · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) trades at $221.43, versus a $179.96 median fair value across its 5 active models — 18.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AGM
Price
$221.43
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $179.96, 18.7% below the current price of $221.43. Estimates range from $138.96 to $298.11. AGM scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AGM’s -18.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AGM?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($221.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $176.30 -20.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $138.96 -37.2%
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What Is AGM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $138.96 to $298.11

CirclFi's 5 active models place Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) between $138.96 and $298.11 per share, a spread of 88% of the median. The median of that range — $179.96 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AGM, against a current price of $221.43.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$138.96median $179.96$298.11
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$138.96
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$298.11
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AGM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $179.96, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $221.43. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-18.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $298.11 (+34.6%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $138.96 (-37.2%). This +71.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AGM?

5 of 13 models are currently active for AGM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AGM is $179.96 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AGM Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, AGM ranks #35 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

Within the Credit Services space, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation competes in an environment where return on tangible equity often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AGM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGM a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.0/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +71.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AGM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AGM's 5 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

ALLYAlly Financial Inc.QOC 7.1SLMSLM CorporationQOC 7.0HTTHigh Templar Tech LimitedQOC 7.2YRDYiren Digital Ltd.QOC 7.0GDOTGreen Dot CorporationQOC 7.3UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9SUIGSUI Group Holdings LimitedQOC 5.0SEZLSezzle Inc.QOC 8.7SPFXStandard Premium Finance Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: ALLY · SLM · HTT · YRD · GDOT · UPST · SUIG · SEZL · SPFX · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AGM?

6 companies across all industries closest to AGM’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

JOUTJohnson Outdoors Inc.QOC 7.0RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQOC 7.0BLZEBackblaze, Inc.QOC 7.0NXGLNEXGEL, Inc.QOC 7.0CTWCTWQOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: JOUT · RKLB · BLZE · NXGL · CTW · NVDA

Where Does AGM Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

AGM is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)'s intrinsic value at $179.96 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $138.96 to $298.11. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AGM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $221.43, 1 of 5 active models suggest AGM may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $179.96, 18.7% below the current price of $221.43 — a consensus view that AGM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for AGM?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AGM?

CirclFi analyzes AGM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AGM?

Of the 5 models currently active on AGM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $298.11 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $138.96. CirclFi's published fair value for AGM is the median of that range, $179.96, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 88% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AGM a value trap in 2026?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) has a median fair value of $179.96 — 18.7% below the current price of $221.43 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AGM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AGM valuation

Market data for AGM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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