Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) Fair Value 2026

AVY · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) trades at $178.34, versus a $138.66 median fair value across its 11 active models — 22.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $166.47.

Key Facts

Ticker
AVY
Price
$178.34
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $138.66, 22.2% below the current price of $178.34. Estimates range from $56.48 to $272.11. AVY scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AVY’s -22.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -15.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Avery Dennison Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AVY?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($178.34)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $166.47 -6.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $63.91 -64.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $138.66 -22.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $56.48 -68.3%
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What Is AVY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $56.48 to $272.11

CirclFi's 11 active models place Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) between $56.48 and $272.11 per share, a spread of 156% of the median. The median of that range — $138.66 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AVY, against a current price of $178.34.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$56.48median $138.66$272.11
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$56.48
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$272.11
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AVY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AVY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Avery Dennison Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $138.66. Trading at $178.34, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -22.2%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $272.11 (+52.6%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $56.48 (-68.3%). This +120.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Avery Dennison Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AVY?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AVY. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AVY is $138.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $166.47 on its own, implying -6.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AVY Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, AVY ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Avery Dennison Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AVY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AVY a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Avery Dennison Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Avery Dennison Corporation earns a quality score of 7.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +120.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AVY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AVY's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Avery Dennison Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

AMCRAmcor plcQOC 7.8REYNReynolds Consumer Products Inc.QOC 7.6SWSmurfit Westrock PlcQOC 7.8SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4MYEMyers Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8OIO-I Glass, Inc.QOC 6.8IPInternational Paper CompanyQOC 6.5MGIHMillennium Group International Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8TRSTriMas CorporationQOC 8.0KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: AMCR · REYN · SW · SLGN · MYE · OI · IP · MGIH · TRS · KRT · PKG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AVY?

7 companies across all industries closest to AVY’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

DSXDiana Shipping Inc.QOC 7.7VZVerizon Communications Inc.QOC 7.7VBNKVersaBankQOC 7.7WYNNWynn Resorts, LimitedQOC 7.7IXORIX CorporationQOC 7.7BHFBrighthouse Financial, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DSX · VZ · VBNK · WYNN · IX · BHF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Avery Dennison Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Avery Dennison Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY)'s intrinsic value at $138.66 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $56.48 to $272.11. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $166.47 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AVY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $178.34, 2 of 11 active models suggest AVY may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $138.66, 22.2% below the current price of $178.34 — a consensus view that AVY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Avery Dennison Corporation's business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for AVY?

Avery Dennison Corporation's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AVY?

CirclFi analyzes AVY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AVY?

Of the 11 models currently active on AVY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $272.11 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $56.48. CirclFi's published fair value for AVY is the median of that range, $138.66, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 156% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AVY a value trap in 2026?

Avery Dennison Corporation's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) has a median fair value of $138.66 — 22.2% below the current price of $178.34 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AVY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AVY valuation
  • Financial statements: Avery Dennison Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000008818) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AVY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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