National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) Fair Value 2026

NBHC · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) trades at $41.22, versus a $23.08 median fair value across its 6 active models — 44.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NBHC
Price
$41.22
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $23.08, 44.0% below the current price of $41.22. Estimates range from $16.46 to $60.40. NBHC scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NBHC’s -44.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy National Bank Holdings Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NBHC?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($41.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.53 -47.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.60 -42.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.56 -45.3%
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What Is NBHC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $16.46 to $60.40

CirclFi's 6 active models place National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) between $16.46 and $60.40 per share, a spread of 190% of the median. The median of that range — $23.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NBHC, against a current price of $41.22.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$16.46median $23.08$60.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$16.46
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$60.40
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NBHC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NBHC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, National Bank Holdings Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $23.08, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $41.22. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-44.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +46.5% (fair value: $60.40), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -60.1% ($16.46). The spread between these extremes — +106.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NBHC?

6 of 13 models are currently active for NBHC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NBHC is $23.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NBHC Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, NBHC ranks #215 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a financial institution, National Bank Holdings Corporation operates in a sector where deposit growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NBHC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NBHC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NBHC a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for National Bank Holdings Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, National Bank Holdings Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +106.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NBHC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NBHC's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy National Bank Holdings Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

PBProsperity Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8CBKCommercial Bancgroup, Inc.QOC 7.8COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc.QOC 7.8FBNCFirst BancorpQOC 7.8NWGNatWest Group plcQOC 7.8LARKLandmark Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.8RVSBRiverview Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.0FMBHFirst Mid Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.6FMAOFarmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: PB · CBK · COLB · FBNC · NWG · LARK · RVSB · FMBH · FMAO · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NBHC?

5 companies across all industries closest to NBHC’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

CAECAE Inc.QOC 7.8SWSmurfit Westrock PlcQOC 7.8AMCRAmcor plcQOC 7.8NINiSource Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CAE · SW · AMCR · NI · NVDA

Where Does NBHC Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

NBHC is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About National Bank Holdings Corporation’s Valuation?

What is National Bank Holdings Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)'s intrinsic value at $23.08 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $16.46 to $60.40. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NBHC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $41.22, 1 of 6 active models suggest NBHC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $23.08, 44.0% below the current price of $41.22 — a consensus view that NBHC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits National Bank Holdings Corporation's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for NBHC?

National Bank Holdings Corporation's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NBHC?

CirclFi analyzes NBHC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NBHC?

Of the 6 models currently active on NBHC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $60.40 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $16.46. CirclFi's published fair value for NBHC is the median of that range, $23.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 190% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NBHC a value trap in 2026?

National Bank Holdings Corporation's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) has a median fair value of $23.08 — 44.0% below the current price of $41.22 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NBHC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NBHC valuation
  • Financial statements: National Bank Holdings Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001475841) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NBHC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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