Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) Fair Value 2026

TFIN · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) trades at $71.86, versus a $24.01 median fair value across its 5 active models — 66.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TFIN
Price
$71.86
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $24.01, 66.6% below the current price of $71.86. Estimates range from $11.67 to $48.59. TFIN scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TFIN’s -66.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Triumph Financial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TFIN?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($71.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.91 -76.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $24.01 -66.6%
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What Is TFIN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $11.67 to $48.59

CirclFi's 5 active models place Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) between $11.67 and $48.59 per share, a spread of 154% of the median. The median of that range — $24.01 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TFIN, against a current price of $71.86.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$11.67median $24.01$48.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$11.67
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$48.59
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TFIN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TFIN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Triumph Financial, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $24.01, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $71.86. With 5 out of 5 models flagging downside (-66.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $48.59 (-32.4%), versus ML-RIV at $11.67 (-83.8%). This +51.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TFIN?

5 of 13 models are currently active for TFIN. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for TFIN is $24.01 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TFIN Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, TFIN ranks #265 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a lending environment, Triumph Financial, Inc. operates in a sector where loan loss provisions is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TFIN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TFIN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TFIN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Triumph Financial, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Triumph Financial, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +51.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TFIN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TFIN's 5 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Triumph Financial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

GOVBGouverneur Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5RBBRBB BancorpQOC 7.5MBINMerchants BancorpQOC 7.5BSRRSierra BancorpQOC 7.4FNLCThe First Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5CMTVCommunity BancorpQOC 7.4STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3CFRCullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.QOC 8.4SBCFSeacoast Banking Corporation of FloridaQOC 8.0ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: GOVB · RBB · MBIN · BSRR · FNLC · CMTV · STBA · CFR · SBCF · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TFIN?

6 companies across all industries closest to TFIN’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

ESRTEmpire State Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.5GMEGameStop Corp.QOC 7.5NTRANatera, Inc.QOC 7.5TECKTeck Resources LimitedQOC 7.5CDNLCardinal Infrastructure Group Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ESRT · GME · NTRA · TECK · CDNL · NVDA

Where Does TFIN Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

TFIN is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Triumph Financial, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Triumph Financial, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)'s intrinsic value at $24.01 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $11.67 to $48.59. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TFIN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $71.86, 0 of 5 active models suggest TFIN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $24.01, 66.6% below the current price of $71.86 — a consensus view that TFIN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Triumph Financial, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for TFIN?

Triumph Financial, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TFIN?

CirclFi analyzes TFIN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TFIN?

Of the 5 models currently active on TFIN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $48.59 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $11.67. CirclFi's published fair value for TFIN is the median of that range, $24.01, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 154% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TFIN a value trap in 2026?

Triumph Financial, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) has a median fair value of $24.01 — 66.6% below the current price of $71.86 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TFIN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TFIN valuation
  • Financial statements: Triumph Financial, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001539638) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TFIN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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