Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) Fair Value 2026

SID · Steel ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (44/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) trades at $1.06, versus a $3.37 median fair value across its 9 active models — 218.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 44/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SID
Price
$1.06
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
44/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +308.4% upside with 32% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 44 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $3.37, 218.1% above the current price of $1.06. Estimates range from $0.04 to $6.10. SID scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 44/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SID’s +218.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Steel sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SID?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.37 +218.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.24 +299.7%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $4.33 +308.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.14 -87.0%
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What Is SID's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.04 to $6.10

CirclFi's 9 active models place Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) between $0.04 and $6.10 per share, a spread of 180% of the median. The median of that range — $3.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SID, against a current price of $1.06.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$0.04median $3.37$6.10
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.04
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$6.10
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SID. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SID, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional's intrinsic value is estimated at $3.37, suggesting a +218.1% median upside from the current price of $1.06. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $6.10 (+475.3%), versus ML-RIV at $0.04 (-95.9%). This +571.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SID?

9 of 13 models are currently active for SID. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SID is $3.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SID Rank in Steel?

Among 21 Steel stocks, SID ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional's positioning within the Steel segment means that capacity utilization rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including reshoring and supply chain localization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SID a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SID a score of 44/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional scores 6.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +571.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SID valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SID's 9 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Steel Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Steel stocks with 13-model coverage

CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc.QOC 6.3INHDInno Holdings Inc.QOC 5.0PKXPOSCO Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc.QOC 4.6WSWorthington Steel, Inc.QOC 6.5LUDLuda Technology Group LimitedQOC 2.9ZKINZK International Group Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6NUENucor CorporationQOC 8.3GGBGerdau S.A.QOC 7.1MSBMesabi TrustQOC 8.7NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: CLF · INHD · PKX · ASTL · WS · LUD · ZKIN · NUE · GGB · MSB · NWPX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SID?

7 companies across all industries closest to SID’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

NMTCNeuroOne Medical Technologies CorporationQOC 6.1RANDRand Capital CorporationQOC 6.0NXPLNextPlat CorpQOC 6.1CHGGChegg, Inc.QOC 6.0VODVodafone Group Public Limited CompanyQOC 6.1LUVULuvu Brands, Inc.QOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NMTC · RAND · NXPL · CHGG · VOD · LUVU · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional’s Valuation?

What is Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID)'s intrinsic value at $3.37 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.04 to $6.10. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SID overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.06, 6 of 9 active models suggest SID may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $3.37, 218.1% above the current price of $1.06 — a consensus view that SID is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional's business model in Steel.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for SID?

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional's QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SID?

CirclFi analyzes SID with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SID?

Of the 9 models currently active on SID, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $6.10 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.04. CirclFi's published fair value for SID is the median of that range, $3.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 180% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SID a value trap in 2026?

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional's Value Trap score is 44/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) has a median fair value of $3.37 — 218.1% above the current price of $1.06 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SID/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SID valuation
  • Financial statements: Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001049659) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SID as of ; valuations recomputed .

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