Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) Fair Value 2026

ENPH · Solar ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) trades at $39.25, versus a $22.28 median fair value across its 10 active models — 43.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $27.66.

Key Facts

Ticker
ENPH
Price
$39.25
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $22.28, 43.2% below the current price of $39.25. Estimates range from $11.27 to $37.11. ENPH scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ENPH’s -43.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Enphase Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ENPH?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.66 -29.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.27 -71.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $22.93 -41.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $34.01 -13.3%
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What Is ENPH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $11.27 to $37.11

CirclFi's 10 active models place Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) between $11.27 and $37.11 per share, a spread of 116% of the median. The median of that range — $22.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ENPH, against a current price of $39.25.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$11.27median $22.28$37.11
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$11.27
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$37.11
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ENPH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ENPH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Enphase Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $22.28, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $39.25. With 10 out of 10 models flagging downside (-43.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $37.11 (-5.5%), versus EPV at $11.27 (-71.3%). This +65.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ENPH?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ENPH. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ENPH is $22.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $27.66 on its own, implying -29.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ENPH Rank in Solar?

Among 22 Solar stocks, ENPH ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places ENPH in the top tier.

Within the Solar space, Enphase Energy, Inc. competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ENPH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ENPH a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Enphase Energy, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Enphase Energy, Inc. is rated at 8.4/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +65.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ENPH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ENPH's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Enphase Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Solar Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Solar stocks with 13-model coverage

NXTNextpower Inc.QOC 8.7SHLSShoals Technologies Group, Inc.QOC 7.4FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.QOC 9.3SEDGSolarEdge Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.1CSIQCanadian Solar Inc.QOC 2.5SPRUSpruce Power Holding CorporationQOC 6.8JKSJinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 6.7TURBTurbo Energy, S.A.QOC 5.2SPWRSunPower Inc.QOC 4.5

Read investment analysis: NXT · SHLS · FSLR · SEDG · CSIQ · SPRU · JKS · TURB · SPWR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ENPH?

7 companies across all industries closest to ENPH’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

CSBBCSB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4RYRoyal Bank of CanadaQOC 8.4GTXGarrett Motion Inc.QOC 8.4MMYTMakeMyTrip LimitedQOC 8.4ITUBItaú Unibanco Holding S.A.QOC 8.4FIVNFive9, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CSBB · RY · GTX · MMYT · ITUB · FIVN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Enphase Energy, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Enphase Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)'s intrinsic value at $22.28 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.27 to $37.11. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $27.66 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ENPH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.25, 0 of 10 active models suggest ENPH may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $22.28, 43.2% below the current price of $39.25 — a consensus view that ENPH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Enphase Energy, Inc.'s business model in Solar.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for ENPH?

Enphase Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ENPH?

CirclFi analyzes ENPH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ENPH?

Of the 10 models currently active on ENPH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $37.11 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $11.27. CirclFi's published fair value for ENPH is the median of that range, $22.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 116% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ENPH a value trap in 2026?

Enphase Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) has a median fair value of $22.28 — 43.2% below the current price of $39.25 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ENPH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ENPH valuation
  • Financial statements: Enphase Energy, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001463101) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ENPH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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