O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Fair Value 2026

ORLY · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) trades at $87.83, versus a $37.10 median fair value across its 11 active models — 57.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $35.36.

Key Facts

Ticker
ORLY
Price
$87.83
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $37.10, 57.8% below the current price of $87.83. Estimates range from $5.57 to $92.82. ORLY scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ORLY’s -57.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -16.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ORLY?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($87.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.36 -59.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $46.78 -46.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $37.10 -57.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $63.19 -28.1%
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What Is ORLY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $5.57 to $92.82

CirclFi's 11 active models place O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) between $5.57 and $92.82 per share, a spread of 235% of the median. The median of that range — $37.10 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ORLY, against a current price of $87.83.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.57median $37.10$92.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$5.57
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$92.82
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ORLY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ORLY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $37.10. Trading at its current price of $87.83, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -57.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $92.82 (+5.7%), versus Dynamic NAV at $5.57 (-93.7%). This +99.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ORLY?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ORLY. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ORLY is $37.10 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $35.36 on its own, implying -59.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ORLY Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 55 Auto Parts stocks, ORLY ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places ORLY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s positioning within the Auto Parts segment means that average transaction price (ATP) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including emerging market demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ORLY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ORLY a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +99.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ORLY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ORLY's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.5MPAAMotorcar Parts of America, Inc.QOC 8.4GNTXGentex CorporationQOC 8.5STRTStrattec Security CorporationQOC 8.4VCVisteon CorporationQOC 8.5GTXGarrett Motion Inc.QOC 8.4HSAIHesai GroupQOC 7.7AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.QOC 6.4QSQuantumScape CorporationQOC 4.5ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: PLOW · MPAA · GNTX · STRT · VC · GTX · HSAI · AAP · QS · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ORLY?

7 companies across all industries closest to ORLY’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.5MTGMGIC Investment CorporationQOC 8.5WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyQOC 8.5ISBAIsabella Bank CorporationQOC 8.5XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PYPL · CBSH · MTG · WTW · ISBA · XPO · NVDA

Where Does ORLY Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

ORLY is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)'s intrinsic value at $37.10 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.57 to $92.82. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $35.36 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ORLY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $87.83, 1 of 11 active models suggest ORLY may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $37.10, 57.8% below the current price of $87.83 — a consensus view that ORLY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for ORLY?

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ORLY?

CirclFi analyzes ORLY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ORLY?

Of the 11 models currently active on ORLY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $92.82 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $5.57. CirclFi's published fair value for ORLY is the median of that range, $37.10, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 235% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ORLY a value trap in 2026?

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) has a median fair value of $37.10 — 57.8% below the current price of $87.83 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ORLY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ORLY valuation
  • Financial statements: O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000898173) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ORLY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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