What Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $60.71. Trading at its current price of $87.28, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -30.4%. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $123.95 (+42.0%), versus Dynamic NAV at $7.86 (-91.0%). This +133.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About ORLY?
13 of 13 models are currently active for ORLY. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ORLY's intrinsic value at $73.31, implying -16.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ORLY Rank in Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores?
Among 4 Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores stocks, ORLY ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places ORLY in the top tier.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s positioning within the Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores segment means that inventory turnover plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including private label penetration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is ORLY a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ORLY a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +133.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ORLY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ORLY's 13 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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