PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Fair Value 2026

PYPL · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) trades at $61.47, versus a $81.62 median fair value across its 10 active models — 32.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $108.99.

Key Facts

Ticker
PYPL
Price
$61.47
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +116.8% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $81.62, 32.8% above the current price of $61.47. Estimates range from $38.17 to $133.29. PYPL scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PYPL’s +32.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +17.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy PayPal Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PYPL?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($61.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $108.99 +77.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $51.76 -15.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $79.04 +28.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $133.29 +116.8%
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What Is PYPL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $38.17 to $133.29

CirclFi's 10 active models place PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) between $38.17 and $133.29 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $81.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PYPL, against a current price of $61.47.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$38.17median $81.62$133.29
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$38.17
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$133.29
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PYPL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PYPL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $81.62. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $61.47 (implied upside of +32.8%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 10 bullish models. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +116.8% (fair value: $133.29), while EROIC is the most conservative at -37.9% ($38.17). The spread between these extremes — +154.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PYPL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PYPL. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PYPL is $81.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $108.99 on its own, implying +77.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PYPL Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, PYPL ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places PYPL in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

Within the Credit Services space, PayPal Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where deposit growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PYPL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PYPL a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for PayPal Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, PayPal Holdings, Inc. is rated at 8.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +154.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PYPL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PYPL's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy PayPal Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

FCFSFirstCash Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5OPFIOppFi Inc.QOC 8.4FINVFinVolution GroupQOC 8.6XYFX FinancialQOC 8.2EZPWEZCORP, Inc.QOC 8.6MFINMedallion Financial Corp.QOC 8.1ATLCAtlanticus Holdings CorporationQOC 7.6SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.9ANTAAntalpha Platform Holding CompaQOC 3.0JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: FCFS · OPFI · FINV · XYF · EZPW · MFIN · ATLC · SOFI · ANTA · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PYPL?

7 companies across all industries closest to PYPL’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

MTGMGIC Investment CorporationQOC 8.5ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.5ISBAIsabella Bank CorporationQOC 8.5CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.5IDNIntellicheck, Inc.QOC 8.5WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MTG · ORLY · ISBA · CBSH · IDN · WTW · NVDA

Where Does PYPL Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

PYPL is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About PayPal Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)'s intrinsic value at $81.62 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $38.17 to $133.29. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $108.99 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PYPL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $61.47, 7 of 10 active models suggest PYPL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $81.62, 32.8% above the current price of $61.47 — a consensus view that PYPL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for PYPL?

PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PYPL?

CirclFi analyzes PYPL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PYPL?

Of the 10 models currently active on PYPL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $133.29 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $38.17. CirclFi's published fair value for PYPL is the median of that range, $81.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PYPL a value trap in 2026?

PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) has a median fair value of $81.62 — 32.8% above the current price of $61.47 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PYPL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PYPL valuation
  • Financial statements: PayPal Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001633917) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PYPL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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