Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) Fair Value 2026

MFIN · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) trades at $11.95, versus a $13.82 median fair value across its 6 active models — 15.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MFIN
Price
$11.95
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +20.9% upside with 24% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $13.82, 15.7% above the current price of $11.95. Estimates range from $9.28 to $24.77. MFIN scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MFIN’s +15.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Medallion Financial Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MFIN?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.20 +10.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $14.45 +20.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.15 +10.0%
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What Is MFIN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $9.28 to $24.77

CirclFi's 6 active models place Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) between $9.28 and $24.77 per share, a spread of 112% of the median. The median of that range — $13.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MFIN, against a current price of $11.95.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$9.28median $13.82$24.77
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$9.28
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$24.77
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MFIN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MFIN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Medallion Financial Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $13.82. At a current market price of $11.95, 5 of 6 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +15.7%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +107.3% (fair value: $24.77), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -22.4% ($9.28). The spread between these extremes — +129.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MFIN?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MFIN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MFIN is $13.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MFIN Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, MFIN ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places MFIN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

The Credit Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Medallion Financial Corp., metrics like loan loss provisions provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MFIN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MFIN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Medallion Financial Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Medallion Financial Corp. scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +129.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MFIN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MFIN's 6 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Medallion Financial Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

XYFX FinancialQOC 8.2BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0OPFIOppFi Inc.QOC 8.4ENVAEnova International, Inc.QOC 7.9PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5OPRTOportun Financial CorporationQOC 7.9CPSSConsumer Portfolio Services, Inc.QOC 7.5PRAAPRA Group, Inc.QOC 6.4JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: XYF · BFH · OPFI · ENVA · PYPL · OPRT · CPSS · PRAA · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MFIN?

7 companies across all industries closest to MFIN’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.QOC 8.2LYFTLyft, Inc.QOC 8.1VMDViemed Healthcare, Inc.QOC 8.2CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp.QOC 8.2SEBSeaboard CorporationQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RCL · LYFT · VMD · CDRE · SBLK · SEB · NVDA

Where Does MFIN Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

MFIN is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Medallion Financial Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Medallion Financial Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN)'s intrinsic value at $13.82 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $9.28 to $24.77. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MFIN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.95, 5 of 6 active models suggest MFIN may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $13.82, 15.7% above the current price of $11.95 — a consensus view that MFIN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Medallion Financial Corp.'s business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for MFIN?

Medallion Financial Corp.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MFIN?

CirclFi analyzes MFIN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MFIN?

Of the 6 models currently active on MFIN, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $24.77 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $9.28. CirclFi's published fair value for MFIN is the median of that range, $13.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 112% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MFIN a value trap in 2026?

Medallion Financial Corp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) has a median fair value of $13.82 — 15.7% above the current price of $11.95 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MFIN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MFIN valuation
  • Financial statements: Medallion Financial Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001000209) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MFIN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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