FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) Fair Value 2026

FCFS · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) trades at $224.07, versus a $105.82 median fair value across its 12 active models — 52.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $313.48.

Key Facts

Ticker
FCFS
Price
$224.07
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +39.9% upside with 67% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $105.82, 52.8% below the current price of $224.07. Estimates range from $35.75 to $313.48. FCFS scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FCFS’s -52.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +17.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy FirstCash Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FCFS?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($224.07)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $313.48 +39.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.75 -84.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $117.71 -47.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $173.09 -22.8%
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What Is FCFS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $35.75 to $313.48

CirclFi's 12 active models place FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) between $35.75 and $313.48 per share, a spread of 262% of the median. The median of that range — $105.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FCFS, against a current price of $224.07.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$35.75median $105.82$313.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$35.75
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$313.48
Model agreement1 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FCFS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FCFS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FirstCash Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $105.82. Trading at its current price of $224.07, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -52.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $313.48 (+39.9%), versus EPV at $35.75 (-84.0%). This +123.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About FCFS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for FCFS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FCFS is $105.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $313.48 on its own, implying +39.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FCFS Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, FCFS ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places FCFS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

The Credit Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to lending environment businesses. For FirstCash Holdings, Inc., metrics like cost-to-income ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is FCFS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FCFS a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for FirstCash Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FirstCash Holdings, Inc. scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +123.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FCFS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FCFS's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FirstCash Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

FINVFinVolution GroupQOC 8.6PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5EZPWEZCORP, Inc.QOC 8.6OPFIOppFi Inc.QOC 8.4SEZLSezzle Inc.QOC 8.7XYFX FinancialQOC 8.2PMTSCPI Card Group Inc.QOC 7.6UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9DXFEason Technology LimitedQOC 4.1JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: FINV · PYPL · EZPW · OPFI · SEZL · XYF · PMTS · UPST · DXF · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FCFS?

7 companies across all industries closest to FCFS’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc.QOC 8.5UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc.QOC 8.5CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedQOC 8.5BANFBancFirst CorporationQOC 8.5TRMDTORM plcQOC 8.5PFHOPacific Health Care Organization, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EXPD · UHS · CAKE · BANF · TRMD · PFHO · NVDA

Where Does FCFS Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

FCFS is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About FirstCash Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is FirstCash Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS)'s intrinsic value at $105.82 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $35.75 to $313.48. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $313.48 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FCFS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $224.07, 1 of 12 active models suggest FCFS may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $105.82, 52.8% below the current price of $224.07 — a consensus view that FCFS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FirstCash Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for FCFS?

FirstCash Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FCFS?

CirclFi analyzes FCFS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FCFS?

Of the 12 models currently active on FCFS, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $313.48 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $35.75. CirclFi's published fair value for FCFS is the median of that range, $105.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 262% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FCFS a value trap in 2026?

FirstCash Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) has a median fair value of $105.82 — 52.8% below the current price of $224.07 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FCFS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FCFS valuation
  • Financial statements: FirstCash Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000840489) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FCFS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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