Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Fair Value 2026

UPST · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) trades at $29.08, versus a $27.27 median fair value across its 2 active models — 6.2% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UPST
Price
$29.08
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +50.8% upside with 43% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $27.27, within 6.2% of the current price of $29.08. Estimates range from $10.70 to $43.84. UPST scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. UPST’s -6.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Upstart Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UPST?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($29.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $43.84 +50.8%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $10.70 -63.2%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Upstart Holdings, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $29.08. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $27.27 (-6.2% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $43.84 (+50.8%), versus FTNN at $10.70 (-63.2%). This +114.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About UPST?

2 of 13 models are currently active for UPST. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for UPST is $27.27 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UPST Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, UPST ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Credit Services segment means that net interest margin (NIM) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is UPST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UPST a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Upstart Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Upstart Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +114.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UPST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UPST's 2 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Upstart Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

YRDYiren Digital Ltd.QOC 7.0SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.9SLMSLM CorporationQOC 7.0WRLDWorld Acceptance CorporationQOC 6.8AGMFederal Agricultural Mortgage CorporationQOC 7.0NAVINavient CorporationQOC 6.5DXFEason Technology LimitedQOC 4.1FCFSFirstCash Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5PMTSCPI Card Group Inc.QOC 7.6JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: YRD · SOFI · SLM · WRLD · AGM · NAVI · DXF · FCFS · PMTS · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UPST?

7 companies across all industries closest to UPST’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

GROWU.S. Global Investors, Inc.QOC 6.9ATECAlphatec Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9GSATGlobalstar, Inc.QOC 6.9CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.QOC 6.9MSBBMercer Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9LIENChicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GROW · ATEC · GSAT · CGAU · MSBB · LIEN · NVDA

Where Does UPST Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

UPST is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Upstart Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)'s intrinsic value at $27.27 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $10.70 to $43.84. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UPST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $29.08, 1 of 2 active models suggest UPST may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $27.27, within 6.2% of the current price of $29.08 — a consensus view that UPST is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for UPST?

Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UPST?

CirclFi analyzes UPST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is UPST a value trap in 2026?

Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has a median fair value of $27.27 — within 6.2% of the current price of $29.08 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UPST/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UPST valuation
  • Financial statements: Upstart Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001647639) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UPST as of ; valuations recomputed .