What Is Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $12.44. Trading at its current price of $31.72, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -60.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $41.03 (+29.4%), versus Markov DDM at $1.64 (-94.8%). This +124.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About UPST?
12 of 13 models are currently active for UPST. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates UPST's intrinsic value at $7.44, implying -76.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does UPST Rank in Finance Services?
Among 123 Finance Services stocks, UPST ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.
See all Most Undervalued Finance Services Stocks →
Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is UPST a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UPST a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Upstart Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Upstart Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +124.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every UPST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across UPST's 12 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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