Alumis Inc. (ALMS) Fair Value 2026

ALMS · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 0 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Alumis Inc. (ALMS) trades at $23.21. QOC: 5.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 0/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALMS
Price
$23.21
Quality Score
5.2/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
0/13
Last Updated
Strength: 0 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALMS?

0 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside

All Models Active

All 0 models are displayed above.

What Is Alumis Inc. (ALMS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alumis Inc. currently lacks sufficient data across our 13-model framework. As more financial data is processed from SEC filings, our models will generate intrinsic value estimates.

What Do the Models Say About ALMS?

0 of 13 models are currently active for ALMS. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALMS Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, ALMS ranks #270 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Within the Biotechnology space, Alumis Inc. competes in an environment where cash runway (months) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ALMS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALMS a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

0 of 13 models are active for Alumis Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Alumis Inc. is rated at 5.2/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALMS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alumis Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

IMTXImmatics N.V.QOC 5.2NEUPNeuphoria Therapeutics Inc.QOC 5.2SABSSAB Biotherapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.2ALDXAldeyra Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.2ALXOALX Oncology Holdings Inc.QOC 5.2MREOMereo BioPharma Group plcQOC 5.2ZNTLZentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.6TRAXFirst Tracks Biotherapeutics, Inc.QOC 3.4CHRSCoherus Oncology, Inc.QOC 6.3EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: IMTX · NEUP · SABS · ALDX · ALXO · MREO · ZNTL · TRAX · CHRS · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALMS?

5 companies across all industries closest to ALMS’s Quality of Company score of 5.2/10.

PAPLPineapple Financial Inc.QOC 5.2SCNXScienture Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.2FOXXFoxx Development Holdings Inc.QOC 5.2BNAIBrand Engagement Network, Inc.QOC 5.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PAPL · SCNX · FOXX · BNAI · NVDA

Where Does ALMS Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

ALMS is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alumis Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Alumis Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Alumis Inc. (ALMS). The Quality of Company score is 5.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALMS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.21, 0 of 0 active models suggest ALMS may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alumis Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.2 mean for ALMS?

Alumis Inc.'s QOC of 5.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALMS?

CirclFi analyzes ALMS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 0 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALMS a value trap in 2026?

Alumis Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Alumis Inc. (ALMS) a Quality of Company score of 5.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALMS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALMS valuation
  • Financial statements: Alumis Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001847367) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALMS as of ; valuations recomputed .