Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Fair Value 2026

AMPL · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) trades at $14.28, versus a $3.12 median fair value across its 5 active models — 78.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.50.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMPL
Price
$14.28
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $3.12, 78.1% below the current price of $14.28. Estimates range from $2.17 to $5.17. AMPL scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AMPL’s -78.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Amplitude, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMPL?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.50 -82.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.12 -78.1%
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What Is AMPL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $2.17 to $5.17

CirclFi's 5 active models place Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) between $2.17 and $5.17 per share, a spread of 96% of the median. The median of that range — $3.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AMPL, against a current price of $14.28.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$2.17median $3.12$5.17
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$2.17
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$5.17
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AMPL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Amplitude, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.12. Trading at its current price of $14.28, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -78.1%.

What Do the Models Say About AMPL?

5 of 13 models are currently active for AMPL. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AMPL is $3.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.50 on its own, implying -82.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMPL Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, AMPL ranks #101 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Amplitude, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Application segment means that rule of 40 score plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including total addressable market (TAM) expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AMPL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMPL a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Amplitude, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Amplitude, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+21.1% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMPL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMPL's 5 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Amplitude, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

SNOWSnowflake Inc.QOC 7.3TEAMAtlassian CorporationQOC 7.2LGCLLucas GC LimitedQOC 7.3BILLBILL Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2CMRCCommerce.com, Inc.QOC 7.3PCORProcore Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.2INVUInvestview, Inc.QOC 5.8ASFTAppSoft Technologies, Inc.QOC 3.8RMNIRimini Street, Inc.QOC 8.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: SNOW · TEAM · LGCL · BILL · CMRC · PCOR · INVU · ASFT · RMNI · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMPL?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMPL’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

PTENPatterson-UTI Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2ALBAlbemarle CorporationQOC 7.2RRyder System, Inc.QOC 7.2FATNFatPipe, Inc.QOC 7.2DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2SPHRSphere Entertainment Co.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PTEN · ALB · R · FATN · DOC · SPHR · NVDA

Where Does AMPL Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

AMPL is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Amplitude, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Amplitude, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL)'s intrinsic value at $3.12 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.17 to $5.17. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.50 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMPL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.28, 0 of 5 active models suggest AMPL may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $3.12, 78.1% below the current price of $14.28 — a consensus view that AMPL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Amplitude, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for AMPL?

Amplitude, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMPL?

CirclFi analyzes AMPL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AMPL?

Of the 5 models currently active on AMPL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $5.17 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $2.17. CirclFi's published fair value for AMPL is the median of that range, $3.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 96% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AMPL a value trap in 2026?

Amplitude, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) has a median fair value of $3.12 — 78.1% below the current price of $14.28 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMPL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMPL valuation
  • Financial statements: Amplitude, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001866692) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMPL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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