National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Fair Value 2026

NHI · REIT - Healthcare Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) trades at $72.03, versus a $33.18 median fair value across its 9 active models — 53.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NHI
Price
$72.03
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $33.18, 53.9% below the current price of $72.03. Estimates range from $2.01 to $78.52. NHI scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NHI’s -53.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Healthcare Facilities sector median is -45.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy National Health Investors, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NHI?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($72.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.01 -97.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $33.18 -53.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $57.04 -20.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.64 -45.0%
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What Is NHI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $2.01 to $78.52

CirclFi's 9 active models place National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) between $2.01 and $78.52 per share, a spread of 231% of the median. The median of that range — $33.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NHI, against a current price of $72.03.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$2.01median $33.18$78.52
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$2.01
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$78.52
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NHI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NHI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, National Health Investors, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $33.18, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $72.03. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-53.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +9.0% (fair value: $78.52), while EPV is the most conservative at -97.2% ($2.01). The spread between these extremes — +106.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NHI?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NHI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NHI is $33.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NHI Rank in REIT - Healthcare Facilities?

Among 17 REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, NHI ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the REIT - Healthcare Facilities space, National Health Investors, Inc. competes in an environment where FDA approval probability often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NHI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NHI a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for National Health Investors, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, National Health Investors, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +106.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NHI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NHI's 9 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy National Health Investors, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Healthcare Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

CHCTCommunity Healthcare Trust IncorporatedQOC 7.2STRWStrawberry Fields REIT, Inc.QOC 7.0DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2VTRVentas, Inc.QOC 6.4SBRASabra Health Care REIT, Inc.QOC 7.4HRHealthcare Realty Trust IncorporatedQOC 6.4MPTMedical Properties Trust, Inc.QOC 6.0CTRECareTrust REIT, Inc.QOC 8.6UHTUniversal Health Realty Income TrustQOC 8.1OHIOmega Healthcare Investors, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: CHCT · STRW · DOC · VTR · SBRA · HR · MPT · CTRE · UHT · OHI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NHI?

7 companies across all industries closest to NHI’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

IMOSChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC.QOC 7.2ALOTAstroNova, Inc.QOC 7.2HASHasbro, Inc.QOC 7.2DBDeutsche Bank AktiengesellschaftQOC 7.2ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc.QOC 7.2GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IMOS · ALOT · HAS · DB · ALTO · GOTU · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About National Health Investors, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is National Health Investors, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI)'s intrinsic value at $33.18 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.01 to $78.52. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NHI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $72.03, 1 of 9 active models suggest NHI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $33.18, 53.9% below the current price of $72.03 — a consensus view that NHI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits National Health Investors, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Healthcare Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for NHI?

National Health Investors, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NHI?

CirclFi analyzes NHI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NHI?

Of the 9 models currently active on NHI, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $78.52 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $2.01. CirclFi's published fair value for NHI is the median of that range, $33.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 231% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NHI a value trap in 2026?

National Health Investors, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) has a median fair value of $33.18 — 53.9% below the current price of $72.03 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NHI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NHI valuation
  • Financial statements: National Health Investors, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000877860) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NHI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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