Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Fair Value 2026

MPT · REIT - Healthcare Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) trades at $4.09, versus a $2.96 median fair value across its 6 active models — 27.7% below the current price. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MPT
Price
$4.09
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $2.96, 27.7% below the current price of $4.09. Estimates range from $0.73 to $13.36. MPT scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MPT’s -27.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Healthcare Facilities sector median is -45.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MPT?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.76 -8.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.82 -55.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.73 -82.0%
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What Is MPT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $0.73 to $13.36

CirclFi's 6 active models place Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) between $0.73 and $13.36 per share, a spread of 427% of the median. The median of that range — $2.96 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MPT, against a current price of $4.09.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$0.73median $2.96$13.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.73
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$13.36
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MPT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MPT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Medical Properties Trust, Inc. at its current price of $4.09. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $2.96 (-27.7% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +226.7% (fair value: $13.36), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -82.0% ($0.73). The spread between these extremes — +308.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MPT?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MPT. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MPT is $2.96 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MPT Rank in REIT - Healthcare Facilities?

Among 17 REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, MPT ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

As a healthcare company, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. operates in a sector where biosimilar competition timeline is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MPT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MPT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MPT a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Medical Properties Trust, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. is rated at 6.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +308.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MPT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MPT's 6 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Healthcare Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

HRHealthcare Realty Trust IncorporatedQOC 6.4XRNChiron Real Estate Inc.QOC 5.9VTRVentas, Inc.QOC 6.4NHPNational Healthcare Properties, Inc.QOC 5.5STRWStrawberry Fields REIT, Inc.QOC 7.0DHCDiversified Healthcare TrustQOC 5.0CTRECareTrust REIT, Inc.QOC 8.6UHTUniversal Health Realty Income TrustQOC 8.1CHCTCommunity Healthcare Trust IncorporatedQOC 7.2OHIOmega Healthcare Investors, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: HR · XRN · VTR · NHP · STRW · DHC · CTRE · UHT · CHCT · OHI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MPT?

7 companies across all industries closest to MPT’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

PRQRProQR Therapeutics N.V.QOC 6.0FUBOFuboTV Inc.QOC 6.0PBHCPathfinder Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.0CURRCURRENC Group Inc.QOC 6.0KRUSKura Sushi USA, Inc.QOC 6.0SSIISS Innovations International, Inc.QOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PRQR · FUBO · PBHC · CURR · KRUS · SSII · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Medical Properties Trust, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT)'s intrinsic value at $2.96 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.73 to $13.36. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MPT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.09, 2 of 6 active models suggest MPT may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $2.96, 27.7% below the current price of $4.09 — a consensus view that MPT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Healthcare Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for MPT?

Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MPT?

CirclFi analyzes MPT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MPT?

Of the 6 models currently active on MPT, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $13.36 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.73. CirclFi's published fair value for MPT is the median of that range, $2.96, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 427% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MPT a value trap in 2026?

Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) has a median fair value of $2.96 — 27.7% below the current price of $4.09 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MPT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MPT valuation
  • Financial statements: Medical Properties Trust, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001287865) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MPT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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