Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Fair Value 2026

MPT · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) trades at $4.70, approximately 51% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $9.50. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MPT
Price
$4.70
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +102.1% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $5.89, 25.4% above the current price of $4.70. Estimates range from $0.29 to $10.06. MPT scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.70)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $9.50 +102.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $7.71 +63.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $3.49 -25.7%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
 $4.59 -2.2%

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What Is Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $6.22. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $4.70 (implied upside of +32.4%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 11 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +114.1% (fair value: $10.06), while EROIC is the most conservative at -93.9% ($0.29). The spread between these extremes — +208.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MPT?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MPT. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MPT's intrinsic value at $9.50, implying +102.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MPT Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 182 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, MPT ranks #120 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

As a REIT, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. operates in a sector where weighted average lease term (WALT) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MPT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MPT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MPT a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Medical Properties Trust, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. is rated at 6.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +208.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MPT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MPT's 11 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

CUBECubeSmartQOC 9.5EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 9.2SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 9.1EPRTEssential Properties Realty TruQOC 8.9HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 8.8PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.7NSANational Storage Affiliates TruQOC 8.6ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · EPRT · HHH

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Medical Properties Trust, Inc.

What is Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $9.50. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MPT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.70, 8 of 11 active models suggest MPT may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $5.89, 25.4% above the current price of $4.70 — a consensus view that MPT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for MPT?

Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MPT?

CirclFi analyzes MPT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MPT a value trap in 2026?

Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) has a median fair value of $5.89 — 25.4% above the current price of $4.70 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MPT/ · Methodology

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