Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) Fair Value 2026

CW · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) trades at $553.35, versus a $249.33 median fair value across its 11 active models — 54.9% below the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $278.94.

Key Facts

Ticker
CW
Price
$553.35
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $249.33, 54.9% below the current price of $553.35. Estimates range from $110.75 to $828.45. CW scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. CW’s -54.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -27.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Curtiss-Wright Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CW?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($553.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $278.94 -49.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $122.16 -77.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $249.33 -54.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $500.21 -9.6%
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What Is CW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $110.75 to $828.45

CirclFi's 11 active models place Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) between $110.75 and $828.45 per share, a spread of 288% of the median. The median of that range — $249.33 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CW, against a current price of $553.35.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$110.75median $249.33$828.45
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$110.75
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$828.45
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Curtiss-Wright Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $249.33. Trading at its current price of $553.35, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -54.9%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +49.7% (fair value: $828.45), while EROIC is the most conservative at -80.0% ($110.75). The spread between these extremes — +129.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CW?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CW. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CW is $249.33 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $278.94 on its own, implying -49.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CW Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, CW ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places CW in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Curtiss-Wright Corporation's positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that backlog-to-revenue ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including commercial aviation recovery — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CW a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Curtiss-Wright Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Curtiss-Wright Corporation earns a quality score of 9.2/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +129.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CW's 11 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Curtiss-Wright Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3OPXSOptex Systems Holdings, IncQOC 9.1BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.QOC 9.0TATTTAT Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.5IAInnovative Aerosystems, Inc.QOC 9.0LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQOC 8.0POWWOutdoor Holding CompanyQOC 6.5LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.QOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: HWM · OPXS · BUKS · DRS · TATT · IA · LMT · POWW · LUNR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CW?

7 companies across all industries closest to CW’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

PRIPrimerica, Inc.QOC 9.2JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.2PDDPDD Holdings Inc.QOC 9.2CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.QOC 9.2VRTVertiv Holdings CoQOC 9.2UPWKUpwork Inc.QOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PRI · JFIN · PDD · CDNS · VRT · UPWK · NVDA

Where Does CW Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

CW is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Curtiss-Wright Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Curtiss-Wright Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW)'s intrinsic value at $249.33 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $110.75 to $828.45. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $278.94 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $553.35, 1 of 11 active models suggest CW may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $249.33, 54.9% below the current price of $553.35 — a consensus view that CW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Curtiss-Wright Corporation's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for CW?

Curtiss-Wright Corporation's QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CW?

CirclFi analyzes CW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CW?

Of the 11 models currently active on CW, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $828.45 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $110.75. CirclFi's published fair value for CW is the median of that range, $249.33, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 288% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CW a value trap in 2026?

Curtiss-Wright Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) has a median fair value of $249.33 — 54.9% below the current price of $553.35 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CW valuation
  • Financial statements: Curtiss-Wright Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000026324) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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