Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) Fair Value 2026

MRLN · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) trades at $3.28, versus a $1.44 median fair value across its 5 active models — 56.2% below the current price. QOC: 5.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.35.

Key Facts

Ticker
MRLN
Price
$3.28
Quality Score
5.1/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $1.44, 56.2% below the current price of $3.28. Estimates range from $0.53 to $1.88. MRLN scores 5.1/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MRLN’s -56.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -32.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Merlin, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MRLN?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $1.35 -59.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.44 -56.2%
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What Is MRLN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.53 to $1.88

CirclFi's 5 active models place Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) between $0.53 and $1.88 per share, a spread of 94% of the median. The median of that range — $1.44 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MRLN, against a current price of $3.28.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.53median $1.44$1.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.53
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.88
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MRLN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Merlin, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.44, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $3.28. With 5 out of 5 models flagging downside (-56.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -42.6% (fair value: $1.88), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -83.8% ($0.53). The spread between these extremes — +41.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MRLN?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MRLN. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MRLN is $1.44 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.35 on its own, implying -59.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MRLN Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, MRLN ranks #68 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a defense contractor, Merlin, Inc. operates in a sector where free cash flow conversion is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MRLN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MRLN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MRLN a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Merlin, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Merlin, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.1/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +41.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MRLN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MRLN's 5 active models, average confidence is 15%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Merlin, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

HOVRNew Horizon Aircraft Ltd.QOC 5.1ARXSArxis, Inc.QOC 5.0SIDUSidus Space, Inc.QOC 5.2LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.QOC 5.0MOBMobilicom LimitedQOC 5.2HONAHoneywell Aerospace Inc.QOC 4.9AADXApplied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.QOC 3.5VVXV2X, Inc.QOC 8.3RDWRedwire CorporationQOC 6.7BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: HOVR · ARXS · SIDU · LUNR · MOB · HONA · AADX · VVX · RDW · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MRLN?

7 companies across all industries closest to MRLN’s Quality of Company score of 5.1/10.

BMBNBenchmark Bankshares, Inc.QOC 5.1EXOZeXoZymes, Inc.QOC 5.1VTIXVirtuix Holdings Inc.QOC 5.1AGPUAxe Compute Inc.QOC 5.1VHUBVenHub Global, Inc.QOC 5.1FTFFranklin Limited Duration Income TrustQOC 5.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BMBN · EXOZ · VTIX · AGPU · VHUB · FTF · NVDA

Where Does MRLN Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

MRLN is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Merlin, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Merlin, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Merlin, Inc. (MRLN)'s intrinsic value at $1.44 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.53 to $1.88. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.35 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MRLN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.28, 0 of 5 active models suggest MRLN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $1.44, 56.2% below the current price of $3.28 — a consensus view that MRLN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Merlin, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.1 mean for MRLN?

Merlin, Inc.'s QOC of 5.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MRLN?

CirclFi analyzes MRLN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MRLN?

Of the 5 models currently active on MRLN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1.88 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.53. CirclFi's published fair value for MRLN is the median of that range, $1.44, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 94% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MRLN a value trap in 2026?

Merlin, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) has a median fair value of $1.44 — 56.2% below the current price of $3.28 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MRLN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MRLN valuation
  • Financial statements: Merlin, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002028707) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MRLN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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