Cosan S.A. (CSAN) Fair Value 2026

CSAN · Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Cosan S.A. (CSAN) trades at $3.07. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CSAN
Price
$3.07
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +352.1% upside with 31% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.07)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$5.28 +71.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$13.88 +352.1%
EROIC Spread
Medium Conviction
$2.97 -3.1%

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What Is Cosan S.A. (CSAN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cosan S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.20, suggesting a +167.2% average upside from the current price of $3.07. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 1 model flags potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $15.66 (+410.2%), versus ML-RIV at $0.04 (-98.8%). This +509.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CSAN?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CSAN. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CSAN Rank in Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations?

Among 20 Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations stocks, CSAN ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations space, Cosan S.A. competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CSAN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CSAN a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Cosan S.A.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Cosan S.A. is rated at 7.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +509.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CSAN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CSAN's 6 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cosan S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CPRT · CASY · RUSHB · RUSHA · MUSA

Frequently Asked Questions About Cosan S.A.

What is Cosan S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Cosan S.A. (CSAN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CSAN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.07, 4 of 6 active models suggest CSAN may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cosan S.A.'s business model in Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for CSAN?

Cosan S.A.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CSAN?

CirclFi analyzes CSAN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CSAN a value trap in 2026?

Cosan S.A.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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