Cosan S.A. (CSAN) Fair Value 2026

CSAN · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Cosan S.A. (CSAN) trades at $2.82, versus a $10.53 median fair value across its 4 active models — 273.5% above the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CSAN
Price
$2.82
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +289.1% upside with 37% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (4/13) may reduce confidence

Is Cosan S.A. (CSAN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Cosan S.A. (CSAN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $10.53, 273.5% above the current price of $2.82. Estimates range from $3.46 to $11.56. CSAN scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CSAN’s +273.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector median is -25.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cosan S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CSAN?

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.46 +22.8%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $10.97 +289.1%
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What Is CSAN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 4 independent models · $3.46 to $11.56

CirclFi's 4 active models place Cosan S.A. (CSAN) between $3.46 and $11.56 per share, a spread of 77% of the median. The median of that range — $10.53 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CSAN, against a current price of $2.82.

Low · EROICHigh · FTNN
$3.46median $10.53$11.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$3.46
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$11.56
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CSAN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cosan S.A. (CSAN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cosan S.A. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $2.82. Based on our 13-model framework, Cosan S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $10.53 — representing +273.5% implied upside — with 4 out of 4 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $11.56 (+309.8%), versus EROIC at $3.46 (+22.8%). This +287.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CSAN?

4 of 13 models are currently active for CSAN. All 4 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CSAN is $10.53 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CSAN Rank in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing?

Among 19 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, CSAN ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space, Cosan S.A. competes in an environment where debt-to-EBITDAX often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CSAN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CSAN a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for Cosan S.A.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Cosan S.A. is rated at 6.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +287.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CSAN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CSAN's 4 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cosan S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks with 13-model coverage

BDCOBlue Dolphin Energy CompanyQOC 6.6CLNEClean Energy Fuels Corp.QOC 6.5DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LPQOC 6.8FGPRFerrellgas Partners, L.P.QOC 6.0CAPLCrossAmerica Partners LPQOC 7.1APCARKO Petroleum Corp.QOC 4.5DLXYDelixy Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7PSXPhillips 66QOC 8.3WKCWorld Kinect CorporationQOC 7.4UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: BDCO · CLNE · DKL · FGPR · CAPL · APC · DLXY · PSX · WKC · UGP · PARR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CSAN?

7 companies across all industries closest to CSAN’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

DLHCDLH Holdings Corp.QOC 6.6HTZHertz Global Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6XPERXperi Inc.QOC 6.6CLWClearwater Paper CorporationQOC 6.6WLKWestlake CorporationQOC 6.6PESIPerma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DLHC · HTZ · XPER · CLW · WLK · PESI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cosan S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Cosan S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cosan S.A. (CSAN)'s intrinsic value at $10.53 — the median of 4 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.46 to $11.56. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CSAN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.82, 4 of 4 active models suggest CSAN may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $10.53, 273.5% above the current price of $2.82 — a consensus view that CSAN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cosan S.A.'s business model in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for CSAN?

Cosan S.A.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CSAN?

CirclFi analyzes CSAN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CSAN?

Of the 4 models currently active on CSAN, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $11.56 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $3.46. CirclFi's published fair value for CSAN is the median of that range, $10.53, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 77% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CSAN a value trap in 2026?

Cosan S.A.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Cosan S.A. (CSAN) has a median fair value of $10.53 — 273.5% above the current price of $2.82 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CSAN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CSAN valuation
  • Financial statements: Cosan S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001430162) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CSAN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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