Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB) Fair Value 2026

PDLB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB) trades at $20.31, versus a $15.24 median fair value across its 3 active models — 25.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PDLB
Price
$20.31
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +1.9% upside with 8% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $15.24, 25.0% below the current price of $20.31. Estimates range from $13.58 to $20.70. PDLB scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PDLB’s -25.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ponce Financial Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PDLB?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.24 -25.0%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $13.58 -33.2%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $20.70 +1.9%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is PDLB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $13.58 to $20.70

CirclFi's 3 active models place Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB) between $13.58 and $20.70 per share, a spread of 47% of the median. The median of that range — $15.24 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PDLB, against a current price of $20.31.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$13.58median $15.24$20.70
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$13.58
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$20.70
Model agreement0 bullish · 2 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PDLB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ponce Financial Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $15.24. Trading at $20.31, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -25.0%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $20.70 (+1.9%), versus Regime Cross at $13.58 (-33.2%). This +35.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About PDLB?

3 of 13 models are currently active for PDLB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PDLB is $15.24 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PDLB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, PDLB ranks #29 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places PDLB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to lending environment businesses. For Ponce Financial Group, Inc., metrics like cost-to-income ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is PDLB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PDLB a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Ponce Financial Group, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ponce Financial Group, Inc. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +35.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PDLB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PDLB's 3 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ponce Financial Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.QOC 8.7CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.7FCAPFirst Capital, Inc.QOC 8.7MGYRMagyar Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.7TCBKTriCo BancsharesQOC 8.7UVSPUnivest Financial CorporationQOC 8.7ZIONZions Bancorporation, National AssociationQOC 8.3HFBLHome Federal Bancorp, Inc. of LouisianaQOC 7.8UBCPUnited Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: UCB · CFG · FCAP · MGYR · TCBK · UVSP · ZION · HFBL · UBCP · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PDLB?

6 companies across all industries closest to PDLB’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

EQTEQT CorporationQOC 8.7CBChubb LimitedQOC 8.7SYYSysco CorporationQOC 8.7MTDMettler-Toledo International Inc.QOC 8.7PPGPPG Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EQT · CB · SYY · MTD · PPG · NVDA

Where Does PDLB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

PDLB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ponce Financial Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ponce Financial Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB)'s intrinsic value at $15.24 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.58 to $20.70. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PDLB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.31, 1 of 3 active models suggest PDLB may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $15.24, 25.0% below the current price of $20.31 — a consensus view that PDLB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ponce Financial Group, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for PDLB?

Ponce Financial Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PDLB?

CirclFi analyzes PDLB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PDLB?

Of the 3 models currently active on PDLB, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $20.70 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $13.58. CirclFi's published fair value for PDLB is the median of that range, $15.24, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 47% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PDLB a value trap in 2026?

Ponce Financial Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB) has a median fair value of $15.24 — 25.0% below the current price of $20.31 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PDLB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PDLB valuation
  • Financial statements: Ponce Financial Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001874071) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PDLB as of ; valuations recomputed .