Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) Fair Value 2026

UVSP · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) trades at $41.57, versus a $31.07 median fair value across its 6 active models — 25.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UVSP
Price
$41.57
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $31.07, 25.3% below the current price of $41.57. Estimates range from $24.38 to $52.20. UVSP scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. UVSP’s -25.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Univest Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UVSP?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($41.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.93 -35.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $29.38 -29.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.38 -41.3%
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What Is UVSP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $24.38 to $52.20

CirclFi's 6 active models place Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) between $24.38 and $52.20 per share, a spread of 90% of the median. The median of that range — $31.07 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for UVSP, against a current price of $41.57.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$24.38median $31.07$52.20
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$24.38
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$52.20
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on UVSP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Univest Financial Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $31.07. Trading at its current price of $41.57, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -25.3%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +25.6% (fair value: $52.20), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -41.3% ($24.38). The spread between these extremes — +66.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About UVSP?

6 of 13 models are currently active for UVSP. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for UVSP is $31.07 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UVSP Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, UVSP ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places UVSP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Univest Financial Corporation, metrics like loan loss provisions provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is UVSP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UVSP a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Univest Financial Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Univest Financial Corporation scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +66.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UVSP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UVSP's 6 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Univest Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

MGYRMagyar Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.7BMABanco Macro S.A.QOC 8.6CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.7BSVNBank7 Corp.QOC 8.6PDLBPonce Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.7SRCE1st Source CorporationQOC 8.6CCBCoastal Financial CorporationQOC 8.2EMYBEmbassy Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.8MCHBMechanics BancorpQOC 7.1STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MGYR · BMA · CFG · BSVN · PDLB · SRCE · CCB · EMYB · MCHB · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UVSP?

7 companies across all industries closest to UVSP’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

LEALear CorporationQOC 8.7IBMInternational Business Machines CorporationQOC 8.6EHCEncompass Health CorporationQOC 8.7SNNSmith & Nephew plcQOC 8.6MSBMesabi TrustQOC 8.7SIGSignet Jewelers LimitedQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LEA · IBM · EHC · SNN · MSB · SIG · NVDA

Where Does UVSP Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

UVSP is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Univest Financial Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Univest Financial Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP)'s intrinsic value at $31.07 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $24.38 to $52.20. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UVSP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $41.57, 1 of 6 active models suggest UVSP may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $31.07, 25.3% below the current price of $41.57 — a consensus view that UVSP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Univest Financial Corporation's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for UVSP?

Univest Financial Corporation's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UVSP?

CirclFi analyzes UVSP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on UVSP?

Of the 6 models currently active on UVSP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $52.20 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $24.38. CirclFi's published fair value for UVSP is the median of that range, $31.07, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 90% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is UVSP a value trap in 2026?

Univest Financial Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) has a median fair value of $31.07 — 25.3% below the current price of $41.57 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UVSP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UVSP valuation
  • Financial statements: Univest Financial Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000102212) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UVSP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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