Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) Fair Value 2026

UVSP · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) trades at $43.68, approximately 32% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $64.35. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UVSP
Price
$43.68
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +47.3% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.68)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$64.35 +47.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$15.16 -65.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$43.64 -0.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$63.21 +44.7%

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What Is Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Univest Financial Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $42.31, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $43.68. With an average implied return of -3.1% across a split 4–7 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +150.5% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +85.2% (fair value: $80.91), while EPV is the most conservative at -65.3% ($15.16). The spread between these extremes — +150.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About UVSP?

13 of 13 models are currently active for UVSP. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates UVSP's intrinsic value at $64.35, implying +47.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UVSP Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 170 State Commercial Banks stocks, UVSP ranks #40 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places UVSP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

The State Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Univest Financial Corporation, metrics like loan loss provisions provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is UVSP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UVSP a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Univest Financial Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Univest Financial Corporation scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +150.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UVSP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UVSP's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Univest Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Univest Financial Corporation

What is Univest Financial Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $64.35. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UVSP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.68, 5 of 13 active models suggest UVSP may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Univest Financial Corporation's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for UVSP?

Univest Financial Corporation's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UVSP?

CirclFi analyzes UVSP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is UVSP a value trap in 2026?

Univest Financial Corporation's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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