ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) Fair Value 2026

PUMP · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) trades at $10.98, versus a $7.78 median fair value across its 11 active models — 29.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.31.

Key Facts

Ticker
PUMP
Price
$10.98
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +211.9% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $7.78, 29.2% below the current price of $10.98. Estimates range from $0.54 to $34.25. PUMP scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PUMP’s -29.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector median is -18.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ProPetro Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PUMP?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.31 -79.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.73 -29.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $34.25 +211.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.54 -95.1%
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What Is PUMP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.54 to $34.25

CirclFi's 11 active models place ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) between $0.54 and $34.25 per share, a spread of 433% of the median. The median of that range — $7.78 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PUMP, against a current price of $10.98.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$0.54median $7.78$34.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.54
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$34.25
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PUMP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PUMP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ProPetro Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.78, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $10.98. With a median implied return of -29.2% across a split 4–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +307.0% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +211.9% (fair value: $34.25), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -95.1% ($0.54). The spread between these extremes — +307.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About PUMP?

11 of 13 models are currently active for PUMP. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PUMP is $7.78 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.31 on its own, implying -79.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PUMP Rank in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services?

Among 53 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, PUMP ranks #30 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

ProPetro Holding Corp.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services segment means that reserve replacement ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including energy transition positioning — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PUMP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PUMP a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for ProPetro Holding Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, ProPetro Holding Corp. earns a quality score of 7.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +307.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PUMP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PUMP's 11 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ProPetro Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

SNDSmart Sand, Inc.QOC 7.5NINENine Energy Service, Inc.QOC 7.1FTKFlotek Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6NOANorth American Construction Group Ltd.QOC 6.9VTOLBristow Group Inc.QOC 7.6WTTRSelect Water Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.8ACDCProFrac Holding Corp.QOC 5.7OIIOceaneering International, Inc.QOC 8.8HLXHelix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.QOC 8.0WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: SND · NINE · FTK · NOA · VTOL · WTTR · ACDC · OII · HLX · WHD · FTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PUMP?

7 companies across all industries closest to PUMP’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

LITELumentum Holdings Inc.QOC 7.5FTEKFuel Tech, Inc.QOC 7.5LDDDLongduoduo Company LimitedQOC 7.5ADTADT Inc.QOC 7.5LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.QOC 7.5FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LITE · FTEK · LDDD · ADT · LIFE · FIS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ProPetro Holding Corp.’s Valuation?

What is ProPetro Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP)'s intrinsic value at $7.78 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.54 to $34.25. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.31 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PUMP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.98, 5 of 11 active models suggest PUMP may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $7.78, 29.2% below the current price of $10.98 — a consensus view that PUMP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ProPetro Holding Corp.'s business model in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for PUMP?

ProPetro Holding Corp.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PUMP?

CirclFi analyzes PUMP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PUMP?

Of the 11 models currently active on PUMP, First Chicago is the most bullish at $34.25 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.54. CirclFi's published fair value for PUMP is the median of that range, $7.78, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 433% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PUMP a value trap in 2026?

ProPetro Holding Corp.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) has a median fair value of $7.78 — 29.2% below the current price of $10.98 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PUMP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PUMP valuation
  • Financial statements: ProPetro Holding Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001680247) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PUMP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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