North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA) Fair Value 2026

NOA · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA) trades at $13.13, versus a $30.77 median fair value across its 7 active models — 134.4% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOA
Price
$13.13
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +189.2% upside with 4% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $30.77, 134.4% above the current price of $13.13. Estimates range from $4.52 to $69.96. NOA scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NOA’s +134.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector median is -18.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy North American Construction Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NOA?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $37.97 +189.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.34 -51.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.56 -19.5%
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What Is NOA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $4.52 to $69.96

CirclFi's 7 active models place North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA) between $4.52 and $69.96 per share, a spread of 213% of the median. The median of that range — $30.77 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NOA, against a current price of $13.13.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$4.52median $30.77$69.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$4.52
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$69.96
Model agreement4 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NOA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NOA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on North American Construction Group Ltd. at $13.13. With an estimated intrinsic value of $30.77 and 4 of 7 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +134.4%. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $69.96 (+432.8%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $4.52 (-65.6%). This +498.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about North American Construction Group Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NOA?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NOA. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NOA is $30.77 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOA Rank in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services?

Among 53 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, NOA ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For North American Construction Group Ltd., metrics like reserve replacement ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NOA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NOA a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for North American Construction Group Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, North American Construction Group Ltd. earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +498.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOA's 7 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy North American Construction Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

NINENine Energy Service, Inc.QOC 7.1WTTRSelect Water Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.8PUMPProPetro Holding Corp.QOC 7.5OISOil States International, Inc.QOC 6.8SNDSmart Sand, Inc.QOC 7.5GEOSGeospace Technologies CorporationQOC 6.7KLXEKLX Energy Services Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.4INVXInnovex International, Inc.QOC 8.7SLBSLB N.V.QOC 8.0WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: NINE · WTTR · PUMP · OIS · SND · GEOS · KLXE · INVX · SLB · WHD · FTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NOA?

7 companies across all industries closest to NOA’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

MSBIMidland States Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9UFIUnifi, Inc.QOC 6.9WYWeyerhaeuser CompanyQOC 6.9FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 6.9METCRamaco Resources, Inc.QOC 6.9DAIOData I/O CorporationQOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MSBI · UFI · WY · FWRG · METC · DAIO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About North American Construction Group Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is North American Construction Group Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA)'s intrinsic value at $30.77 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.52 to $69.96. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.13, 4 of 7 active models suggest NOA may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $30.77, 134.4% above the current price of $13.13 — a consensus view that NOA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits North American Construction Group Ltd.'s business model in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for NOA?

North American Construction Group Ltd.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOA?

CirclFi analyzes NOA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NOA?

Of the 7 models currently active on NOA, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $69.96 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $4.52. CirclFi's published fair value for NOA is the median of that range, $30.77, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 213% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NOA a value trap in 2026?

North American Construction Group Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA) has a median fair value of $30.77 — 134.4% above the current price of $13.13 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NOA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NOA valuation

Market data for NOA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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