Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Fair Value 2026

PGY · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) trades at $21.98, versus a $43.69 median fair value across its 3 active models — 98.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PGY
Price
$21.98
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +156.4% upside with 45% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $43.69, 98.8% above the current price of $21.98. Estimates range from $3.64 to $56.36. PGY scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PGY’s +98.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -23.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PGY?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.64 -83.4%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $56.36 +156.4%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $43.69 +98.8%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is PGY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $3.64 to $56.36

CirclFi's 3 active models place Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) between $3.64 and $56.36 per share, a spread of 121% of the median. The median of that range — $43.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PGY, against a current price of $21.98.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$3.64median $43.69$56.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.64
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$56.36
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PGY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PGY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Pagaya Technologies Ltd. at $21.98. With an estimated intrinsic value of $43.69 and 2 of 3 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +98.8%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $56.36 (+156.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $3.64 (-83.4%). This +239.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PGY?

3 of 13 models are currently active for PGY. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PGY is $43.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PGY Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 189 Software - Infrastructure stocks, PGY ranks #43 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places PGY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s positioning within the Software - Infrastructure segment means that rule of 40 score plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including AI/ML integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PGY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PGY a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Pagaya Technologies Ltd.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +239.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PGY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PGY's 3 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2CALXCalix, Inc.QOC 8.1CPAYCorpay, Inc.QOC 8.2KSPIJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kzQOC 8.1ZSZscaler, Inc.QOC 8.2CCSIConsensus Cloud Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.1REKRRekor Systems, Inc.QOC 6.1BNAIBrand Engagement Network, Inc.QOC 5.2NYAXNayax Ltd.QOC 2.5FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: CRWD · CALX · CPAY · KSPI · ZS · CCSI · REKR · BNAI · NYAX · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PGY?

6 companies across all industries closest to PGY’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CUBICustomers Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2UTMDUtah Medical Products, Inc.QOC 8.2GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.QOC 8.2SBFGSB Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.2RBARB Global, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CUBI · UTMD · GGAL · SBFG · RBA · NVDA

Where Does PGY Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

PGY is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Pagaya Technologies Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)'s intrinsic value at $43.69 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.64 to $56.36. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PGY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.98, 2 of 3 active models suggest PGY may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $43.69, 98.8% above the current price of $21.98 — a consensus view that PGY is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for PGY?

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PGY?

CirclFi analyzes PGY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PGY?

Of the 3 models currently active on PGY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $56.36 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.64. CirclFi's published fair value for PGY is the median of that range, $43.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 121% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PGY a value trap in 2026?

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) has a median fair value of $43.69 — 98.8% above the current price of $21.98 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PGY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PGY valuation
  • Financial statements: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001883085) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PGY as of ; valuations recomputed .