CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Fair Value 2026

CRWD · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) trades at $218.40, versus a $28.65 median fair value across its 5 active models — 86.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $33.28.

Key Facts

Ticker
CRWD
Price
$218.40
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $28.65, 86.9% below the current price of $218.40. Estimates range from $18.22 to $42.40. CRWD scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CRWD’s -86.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -23.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CRWD?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($218.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $33.28 -84.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $28.65 -86.9%
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What Is CRWD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $18.22 to $42.40

CirclFi's 5 active models place CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) between $18.22 and $42.40 per share, a spread of 84% of the median. The median of that range — $28.65 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CRWD, against a current price of $218.40.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$18.22median $28.65$42.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$18.22
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$42.40
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CRWD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $28.65. Trading at its current price of $218.40, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -86.9%.

What Do the Models Say About CRWD?

5 of 13 models are currently active for CRWD. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CRWD is $28.65 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $33.28 on its own, implying -84.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CRWD Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 189 Software - Infrastructure stocks, CRWD ranks #42 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places CRWD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Infrastructure segment means that rule of 40 score plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including enterprise adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CRWD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CRWD a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.2/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+11.1% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CRWD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CRWD's 5 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

CPAYCorpay, Inc.QOC 8.2PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.QOC 8.2ZSZscaler, Inc.QOC 8.2CALXCalix, Inc.QOC 8.1BBBlackBerry LimitedQOC 8.3KSPIJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kzQOC 8.1BLINBridgeline Digital, Inc.QOC 6.1GRHIGold Rock Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.2DLODLocal LimitedQOC 2.6FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: CPAY · PGY · ZS · CALX · BB · KSPI · BLIN · GRHI · DLO · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CRWD?

6 companies across all industries closest to CRWD’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

AERAerCap Holdings N.V.QOC 8.2GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.QOC 8.2ERIIEnergy Recovery, Inc.QOC 8.2CUBICustomers Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2RAILFreightCar America, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AER · GGAL · ERII · CUBI · RAIL · NVDA

Where Does CRWD Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

CRWD is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD)'s intrinsic value at $28.65 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $18.22 to $42.40. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $33.28 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CRWD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $218.40, 0 of 5 active models suggest CRWD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $28.65, 86.9% below the current price of $218.40 — a consensus view that CRWD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for CRWD?

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CRWD?

CirclFi analyzes CRWD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CRWD?

Of the 5 models currently active on CRWD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $42.40 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $18.22. CirclFi's published fair value for CRWD is the median of that range, $28.65, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 84% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CRWD a value trap in 2026?

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) has a median fair value of $28.65 — 86.9% below the current price of $218.40 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CRWD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CRWD valuation
  • Financial statements: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001535527) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CRWD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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