Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) Fair Value 2026

EXOD · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) trades at $9.29, versus a $6.51 median fair value across its 2 active models — 30.0% below the current price. QOC: 5.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
EXOD
Price
$9.29
Quality Score
5.2/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +22.4% upside with 6% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $6.51, 30.0% below the current price of $9.29. Estimates range from $1.64 to $11.37. EXOD scores 5.2/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. EXOD’s -30.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -22.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Exodus Movement, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EXOD?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
$1.64 -82.4%
Relative · Low Conviction
$11.37 +22.4%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Exodus Movement, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $6.51, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $9.29. With a median implied return of -30.0% across a split 1–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +104.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +22.4% (fair value: $11.37), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -82.4% ($1.64). The spread between these extremes — +104.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About EXOD?

2 of 13 models are currently active for EXOD. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EXOD is $6.51 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EXOD Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 186 Software - Infrastructure stocks, EXOD ranks #131 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Exodus Movement, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Infrastructure segment means that rule of 40 score plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including enterprise adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is EXOD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EXOD a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Exodus Movement, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Exodus Movement, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.2/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +104.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EXOD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EXOD's 2 active models, average confidence is 21%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Exodus Movement, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: KCRD · STNE · WHEN · CISO · OLB · GRHI · RDWR · ZS · YYAI · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EXOD?

7 companies across all industries closest to EXOD’s Quality of Company score of 5.2/10.

Read investment analysis: ENGS · FGL · COYA · FRBP · MOB · TURB · NVDA

Where Does EXOD Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

EXOD is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Exodus Movement, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Exodus Movement, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)'s intrinsic value at $6.51 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.64 to $11.37. The Quality of Company score is 5.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EXOD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.29, 1 of 2 active models suggest EXOD may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $6.51, 30.0% below the current price of $9.29 — a consensus view that EXOD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Exodus Movement, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.2 mean for EXOD?

Exodus Movement, Inc.'s QOC of 5.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EXOD?

CirclFi analyzes EXOD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is EXOD a value trap in 2026?

Exodus Movement, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) has a median fair value of $6.51 — 30.0% below the current price of $9.29 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EXOD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EXOD valuation
  • Financial statements: Exodus Movement, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001821534) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EXOD as of ; valuations recomputed .