Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) Fair Value 2026

EXOD · Finance Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) trades at $4.87, approximately 6% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $4.61. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
EXOD
Price
$4.87
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +261.3% upside with 44% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$4.61 -5.3%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$17.59 +261.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$9.87 +102.8%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
$5.41 +11.1%

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What Is Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Exodus Movement, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $8.59. At a current market price of $4.87, 10 of 12 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +76.4%. Notably, EPV sees the most upside at +261.3% (fair value: $17.59), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -42.6% ($2.79). The spread between these extremes — +303.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About EXOD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for EXOD. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates EXOD's intrinsic value at $4.61, implying -5.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EXOD Rank in Finance Services?

Among 118 Finance Services stocks, EXOD ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places EXOD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Finance Services Stocks →

Exodus Movement, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is EXOD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EXOD a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Exodus Movement, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Exodus Movement, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +303.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EXOD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EXOD's 12 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Exodus Movement, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Finance Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Finance Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: QFIN · XYF · COIN · SII · JFIN

See all Finance Services stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Exodus Movement, Inc.

What is Exodus Movement, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $4.61. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EXOD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.87, 10 of 12 active models suggest EXOD may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Exodus Movement, Inc.'s business model in Finance Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for EXOD?

Exodus Movement, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EXOD?

CirclFi analyzes EXOD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is EXOD a value trap in 2026?

Exodus Movement, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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