Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) Fair Value 2026

ORIO · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) trades at $1.09, versus a $3.12 median fair value across its 2 active models — 185.9% above the current price. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ORIO
Price
$1.09
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +309.0% upside with 5% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $3.12, 185.9% above the current price of $1.09. Estimates range from $1.77 to $4.46. ORIO scores 5.4/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ORIO’s +185.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -23.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Orion Digital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ORIO?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $1.77 +62.7%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $4.46 +309.0%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Orion Digital Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $3.12. At a current market price of $1.09, 2 of 2 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +185.9%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +309.0% (fair value: $4.46), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at +62.7% ($1.77). The spread between these extremes — +246.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ORIO?

2 of 13 models are currently active for ORIO. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ORIO is $3.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ORIO Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 189 Software - Infrastructure stocks, ORIO ranks #125 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Within the Software - Infrastructure space, Orion Digital Corp. competes in an environment where gross margin profile often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ORIO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ORIO a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Orion Digital Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Orion Digital Corp. is rated at 5.4/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +246.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ORIO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ORIO's 2 active models, average confidence is 16%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Orion Digital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

KPLTKatapult Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.4CORZCore Scientific, Inc.QOC 5.4XBPXBP Global Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.4KDKKodiak AI, Inc.QOC 5.4INTZIntrusion Inc.QOC 5.5NUAINew Era Energy & Digital, Inc.QOC 5.3VISMVisium Technologies, Inc.QOC 3.4NTNXNutanix, Inc.QOC 8.4TLSTelos CorporationQOC 6.8FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: KPLT · CORZ · XBP · KDK · INTZ · NUAI · VISM · NTNX · TLS · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ORIO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ORIO’s Quality of Company score of 5.4/10.

RMTGRegenerative Medical Technology Group Inc.QOC 5.4ASAASA Gold and Precious Metals LimitedQOC 5.4SCKTSocket Mobile, Inc.QOC 5.4PULMPulmatrix, Inc.QOC 5.4SLXNSilexion Therapeutics CorpQOC 5.4INTGThe InterGroup CorporationQOC 5.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RMTG · ASA · SCKT · PULM · SLXN · INTG · NVDA

Where Does ORIO Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

ORIO is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Orion Digital Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Orion Digital Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)'s intrinsic value at $3.12 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.77 to $4.46. The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ORIO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.09, 2 of 2 active models suggest ORIO may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $3.12, 185.9% above the current price of $1.09 — a consensus view that ORIO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Orion Digital Corp.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for ORIO?

Orion Digital Corp.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ORIO?

CirclFi analyzes ORIO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ORIO a value trap in 2026?

Orion Digital Corp.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) has a median fair value of $3.12 — 185.9% above the current price of $1.09 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ORIO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ORIO valuation
  • Financial statements: Orion Digital Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001602842) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ORIO as of ; valuations recomputed .