Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK) Fair Value 2026

KDK · Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK) trades at $4.66, approximately 345% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.05. QOC: 4.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KDK
Price
$4.66
Quality Score
4.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.9/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$1.05 -77.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$2.28 -51.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$0.81 -82.5%

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What Is Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kodiak AI, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.96. Trading at its current price of $4.66, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -58.0%. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $5.06 (+8.6%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $0.80 (-82.8%). This +91.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About KDK?

7 of 13 models are currently active for KDK. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates KDK's intrinsic value at $1.05, implying -77.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KDK Rank in Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design?

Among 44 Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design stocks, KDK ranks #34 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design Stocks →

Kodiak AI, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is KDK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KDK a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Kodiak AI, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kodiak AI, Inc. scores 4.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KDK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KDK's 7 active models, average confidence is 19%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kodiak AI, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: GDDY · JKHY · LDOS · SAIC · NTCT

See all Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Kodiak AI, Inc.

What is Kodiak AI, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.05. The Quality of Company score is 4.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KDK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.66, 1 of 7 active models suggest KDK may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kodiak AI, Inc.'s business model in Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.9 mean for KDK?

Kodiak AI, Inc.'s QOC of 4.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KDK?

CirclFi analyzes KDK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is KDK a value trap in 2026?

Kodiak AI, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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