Stagwell Inc. (STGW) Fair Value 2026

STGW · Advertising Agencies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Stagwell Inc. (STGW) trades at $8.88, versus a $11.99 median fair value across its 9 active models — 35.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $25.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
STGW
Price
$8.88
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +186.3% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Stagwell Inc. (STGW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Stagwell Inc. (STGW) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $11.99, 35.1% above the current price of $8.88. Estimates range from $4.25 to $31.41. STGW scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. STGW’s +35.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Advertising Agencies sector median is +3.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Stagwell Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STGW?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.42 +186.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.12 +59.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $16.74 +88.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.89 -11.2%
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What Is STGW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $4.25 to $31.41

CirclFi's 9 active models place Stagwell Inc. (STGW) between $4.25 and $31.41 per share, a spread of 226% of the median. The median of that range — $11.99 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for STGW, against a current price of $8.88.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$4.25median $11.99$31.41
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$4.25
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$31.41
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for STGW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on STGW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Stagwell Inc. (STGW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Stagwell Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $11.99. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $8.88 (implied upside of +35.1%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 9 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +253.7% (fair value: $31.41), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -52.2% ($4.25). The spread between these extremes — +305.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About STGW?

9 of 13 models are currently active for STGW. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for STGW is $11.99 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $25.42 on its own, implying +186.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STGW Rank in Advertising Agencies?

Among 48 Advertising Agencies stocks, STGW ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Stagwell Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is STGW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STGW a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Stagwell Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Stagwell Inc. is rated at 7.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +305.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STGW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STGW's 9 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Stagwell Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Advertising Agencies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Advertising Agencies stocks with 13-model coverage

HFUSHartford Creative Group, Inc.QOC 7.5WIMIWiMi Hologram Cloud Inc.QOC 6.8IZEAIZEA Worldwide, Inc.QOC 7.5OMCOmnicom Group Inc.QOC 6.8CHRCheer Holding, Inc.QOC 7.6SWAGStran & Company, Inc.QOC 6.7MCHXMarchex, Inc.QOC 5.8DRCTDirect Digital Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.3APPAppLovin CorporationQOC 9.5QNSTQuinStreet, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: HFUS · WIMI · IZEA · OMC · CHR · SWAG · MCHX · DRCT · APP · QNST

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STGW?

7 companies across all industries closest to STGW’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

HTTHigh Templar Tech LimitedQOC 7.2ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc.QOC 7.2USIOUsio, Inc.QOC 7.2ESEversource EnergyQOC 7.2CYDChina Yuchai International LimitedQOC 7.2HASHasbro, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HTT · ALTO · USIO · ES · CYD · HAS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Stagwell Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Stagwell Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Stagwell Inc. (STGW)'s intrinsic value at $11.99 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $4.25 to $31.41. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $25.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STGW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.88, 5 of 9 active models suggest STGW may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $11.99, 35.1% above the current price of $8.88 — a consensus view that STGW is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Stagwell Inc.'s business model in Advertising Agencies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for STGW?

Stagwell Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STGW?

CirclFi analyzes STGW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on STGW?

Of the 9 models currently active on STGW, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $31.41 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $4.25. CirclFi's published fair value for STGW is the median of that range, $11.99, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 226% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is STGW a value trap in 2026?

Stagwell Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Stagwell Inc. (STGW) has a median fair value of $11.99 — 35.1% above the current price of $8.88 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STGW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STGW valuation
  • Financial statements: Stagwell Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000876883) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STGW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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