What Is Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ambarella, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $19.25, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $72.00. With 12 out of 13 models flagging downside (-73.3% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $70.43 (-2.2%), while First Chicago — the most conservative — estimates $0.89 (-98.8%). This +96.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ambarella, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About AMBA?
13 of 13 models are currently active for AMBA. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates AMBA's intrinsic value at $6.44, implying -91.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does AMBA Rank in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials?
Among 6 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, AMBA ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.
As a semiconductor industry, Ambarella, Inc. operates in a sector where average selling price (ASP) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AMBA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is AMBA a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMBA a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Ambarella, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Ambarella, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +96.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every AMBA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across AMBA's 13 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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