Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Fair Value 2026

AMBA · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) trades at $71.16, versus a $23.34 median fair value across its 5 active models — 67.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $11.47.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMBA
Price
$71.16
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $23.34, 67.2% below the current price of $71.16. Estimates range from $8.78 to $50.48. AMBA scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AMBA’s -67.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector median is -71.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ambarella, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMBA?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($71.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.47 -83.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.34 -67.2%
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What Is AMBA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $8.78 to $50.48

CirclFi's 5 active models place Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) between $8.78 and $50.48 per share, a spread of 179% of the median. The median of that range — $23.34 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AMBA, against a current price of $71.16.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$8.78median $23.34$50.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$8.78
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$50.48
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AMBA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AMBA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ambarella, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $23.34, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $71.16. With 5 out of 5 models flagging downside (-67.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $50.48 (-29.1%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $8.78 (-87.7%). This +58.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ambarella, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AMBA?

5 of 13 models are currently active for AMBA. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AMBA is $23.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $11.47 on its own, implying -83.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMBA Rank in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials?

Among 32 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, AMBA ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

As a semiconductor industry, Ambarella, Inc. operates in a sector where average selling price (ASP) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AMBA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AMBA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMBA a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Ambarella, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Ambarella, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.0/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +58.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMBA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMBA's 5 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ambarella, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

IPGPIPG Photonics CorporationQOC 7.5AEHRAehr Test Systems, Inc.QOC 6.9INTTInTest CorporationQOC 7.6COHUCohu, Inc.QOC 6.8FORMFormFactor, Inc.QOC 7.8ICHRIchor Holdings, Ltd.QOC 6.8SMTKSmartKem, Inc.QOC 6.2AMATApplied Materials, Inc.QOC 9.4TERTeradyne, Inc.QOC 8.1KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8ASMLASML Holding N.V.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: IPGP · AEHR · INTT · COHU · FORM · ICHR · SMTK · AMAT · TER · KLAC · ASML

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMBA?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMBA’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

BRIABrilliA IncQOC 7.0WFWoori Financial Group Inc.QOC 7.0ULBIUltralife CorporationQOC 7.0SEERSeer, Inc.QOC 7.0BZUNBaozun Inc.QOC 7.0KODKEastman Kodak CompanyQOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BRIA · WF · ULBI · SEER · BZUN · KODK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ambarella, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ambarella, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA)'s intrinsic value at $23.34 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.78 to $50.48. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $11.47 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMBA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $71.16, 0 of 5 active models suggest AMBA may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $23.34, 67.2% below the current price of $71.16 — a consensus view that AMBA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ambarella, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for AMBA?

Ambarella, Inc.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMBA?

CirclFi analyzes AMBA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AMBA?

Of the 5 models currently active on AMBA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $50.48 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $8.78. CirclFi's published fair value for AMBA is the median of that range, $23.34, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 179% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AMBA a value trap in 2026?

Ambarella, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) has a median fair value of $23.34 — 67.2% below the current price of $71.16 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMBA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMBA valuation
  • Financial statements: Ambarella, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001280263) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMBA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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