The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) Fair Value 2026

SAM · Beverages - Brewers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) trades at $170.37, versus a $161.79 median fair value across its 10 active models — 5.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $302.88.

Key Facts

Ticker
SAM
Price
$170.37
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +77.8% upside with 68% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $161.79, within 5.0% of the current price of $170.37. Estimates range from $27.51 to $302.88. SAM scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. SAM’s -5.0% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SAM?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($170.37)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $302.88 +77.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $98.99 -41.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $171.72 +0.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $93.53 -45.1%
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What Is SAM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $27.51 to $302.88

CirclFi's 10 active models place The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) between $27.51 and $302.88 per share, a spread of 170% of the median. The median of that range — $161.79 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SAM, against a current price of $170.37.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$27.51median $161.79$302.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$27.51
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$302.88
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SAM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SAM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Boston Beer Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $161.79, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $170.37. While the median implied return is -5.0%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +161.6% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $302.88 (+77.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $27.51 (-83.9%). This +161.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about The Boston Beer Company, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SAM?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SAM. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SAM is $161.79 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $302.88 on its own, implying +77.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SAM Rank in Beverages - Brewers?

Among 7 Beverages - Brewers stocks, SAM ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Beverages - Brewers space, The Boston Beer Company, Inc. competes in an environment where inventory turnover often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SAM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SAM a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for The Boston Beer Company, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, The Boston Beer Company, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +161.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SAM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SAM's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Brewers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

6 related Beverages - Brewers stocks with 13-model coverage

FMXFomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.6ABEVAmbev S.A.QOC 8.2STZConstellation Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2CCUCompañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A.QOC 8.2TAPMolson Coors Beverage CompanyQOC 6.5BUDAnheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVQOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: FMX · ABEV · STZ · CCU · TAP · BUD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SAM?

7 companies across all industries closest to SAM’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

BANCBanc of California, Inc.QOC 7.8FORMFormFactor, Inc.QOC 7.8KLICKulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationQOC 7.8MBCMasterBrand, Inc.QOC 7.8SPBSpectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BANC · FORM · KLIC · BYD · MBC · SPB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Boston Beer Company, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The Boston Beer Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM)'s intrinsic value at $161.79 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $27.51 to $302.88. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $302.88 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SAM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $170.37, 5 of 10 active models suggest SAM may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $161.79, within 5.0% of the current price of $170.37 — a consensus view that SAM is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Boston Beer Company, Inc.'s business model in Beverages - Brewers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for SAM?

The Boston Beer Company, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SAM?

CirclFi analyzes SAM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SAM?

Of the 10 models currently active on SAM, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $302.88 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $27.51. CirclFi's published fair value for SAM is the median of that range, $161.79, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 170% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SAM a value trap in 2026?

The Boston Beer Company, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) has a median fair value of $161.79 — within 5.0% of the current price of $170.37 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SAM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SAM valuation
  • Financial statements: The Boston Beer Company, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000949870) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SAM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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