Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) (SAM) Fair Value 2026

SAM · Malt Beverages ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) (SAM) trades at $172.24, approximately 26% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $232.52. QOC: 7.7/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SAM
Price
$172.24
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +35.0% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($172.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$232.52 +35.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$102.50 -40.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$121.93 -29.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$32.65 -81.0%

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What Is Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) (SAM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) at its current price of $172.24. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $128.00 (-25.7% average return), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $254.90 (+48.0%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $31.79 (-81.5%). This +129.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The)'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SAM?

13 of 13 models are currently active for SAM. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SAM's intrinsic value at $232.52, implying +35.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SAM Rank in Malt Beverages?

Among 4 Malt Beverages stocks, SAM ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Malt Beverages space, Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) competes in an environment where inventory turnover often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SAM a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for SAM. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The). Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The)'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +129.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SAM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SAM's 13 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Malt Beverages Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Frequently Asked Questions About Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The)

What is Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The)'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) (SAM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $232.52. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SAM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $172.24, 5 of 13 active models suggest SAM may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The)'s business model in Malt Beverages.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for SAM?

Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The)'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SAM?

CirclFi analyzes SAM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SAM a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for SAM at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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