Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Fair Value 2026

SNOW · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (38/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) trades at $328.00, versus a $57.50 median fair value across its 5 active models — 82.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 38/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $70.15.

Key Facts

Ticker
SNOW
Price
$328.00
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
38/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $57.50, 82.5% below the current price of $328.00. Estimates range from $35.09 to $81.74. SNOW scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 38/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SNOW’s -82.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Snowflake Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SNOW?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($328.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $70.15 -78.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $57.50 -82.5%
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What Is SNOW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $35.09 to $81.74

CirclFi's 5 active models place Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) between $35.09 and $81.74 per share, a spread of 81% of the median. The median of that range — $57.50 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SNOW, against a current price of $328.00.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$35.09median $57.50$81.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$35.09
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$81.74
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SNOW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Snowflake Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $57.50, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $328.00. With 5 out of 5 models flagging downside (-82.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About SNOW?

5 of 13 models are currently active for SNOW. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SNOW is $57.50 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $70.15 on its own, implying -78.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SNOW Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, SNOW ranks #105 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a technology sector, Snowflake Inc. operates in a sector where gross margin profile is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SNOW should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SNOW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SNOW a score of 38/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Snowflake Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Snowflake Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

Models cluster within a tight range (+14.2% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SNOW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SNOW's 5 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Snowflake Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

LGCLLucas GC LimitedQOC 7.3AMPLAmplitude, Inc.QOC 7.2CMRCCommerce.com, Inc.QOC 7.3TEAMAtlassian CorporationQOC 7.2SSTISoundThinking, Inc.QOC 7.3BILLBILL Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2AMSTAmesite Inc.QOC 5.9ASFTAppSoft Technologies, Inc.QOC 3.8BLKBBlackbaud, Inc.QOC 8.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: LGCL · AMPL · CMRC · TEAM · SSTI · BILL · AMST · ASFT · BLKB · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SNOW?

7 companies across all industries closest to SNOW’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

BMRCBank of Marin BancorpQOC 7.3HTGCHercules Capital, Inc.QOC 7.3FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.QOC 7.3DBRGDigitalBridge Group, Inc.QOC 7.3AORTArtivion, Inc.QOC 7.3RFILRF Industries, Ltd.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BMRC · HTGC · FBIN · DBRG · AORT · RFIL · NVDA

Where Does SNOW Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

SNOW is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Snowflake Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Snowflake Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)'s intrinsic value at $57.50 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $35.09 to $81.74. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $70.15 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SNOW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $328.00, 0 of 5 active models suggest SNOW may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $57.50, 82.5% below the current price of $328.00 — a consensus view that SNOW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Snowflake Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for SNOW?

Snowflake Inc.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SNOW?

CirclFi analyzes SNOW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SNOW?

Of the 5 models currently active on SNOW, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $81.74 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $35.09. CirclFi's published fair value for SNOW is the median of that range, $57.50, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 81% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SNOW a value trap in 2026?

Snowflake Inc.'s Value Trap score is 38/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) has a median fair value of $57.50 — 82.5% below the current price of $328.00 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SNOW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SNOW valuation
  • Financial statements: Snowflake Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001640147) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SNOW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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