SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) Fair Value 2026

SSTI · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (43/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) trades at $6.20, versus a $6.98 median fair value across its 3 active models — 12.6% above the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 43/100 (WARN). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.10.

Key Facts

Ticker
SSTI
Price
$6.20
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
43/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +94.0% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 43 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $6.98, 12.6% above the current price of $6.20. Estimates range from $4.10 to $12.03. SSTI scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 43/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SSTI’s +12.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SoundThinking, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SSTI?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.10 -33.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.98 +12.6%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $12.03 +94.0%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is SSTI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $4.10 to $12.03

CirclFi's 3 active models place SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) between $4.10 and $12.03 per share, a spread of 113% of the median. The median of that range — $6.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SSTI, against a current price of $6.20.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · FTNN
$4.10median $6.98$12.03
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$4.10
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$12.03
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SSTI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SSTI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SoundThinking, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $6.98, suggesting a +12.6% median upside from the current price of $6.20. While 2 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 1 model flags potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $12.03 (+94.0%), versus Bayesian DCF at $4.10 (-33.8%). This +127.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SSTI?

3 of 13 models are currently active for SSTI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SSTI is $6.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.10 on its own, implying -33.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SSTI Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, SSTI ranks #102 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Within the Software - Application space, SoundThinking, Inc. competes in an environment where annual recurring revenue (ARR) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SSTI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SSTI a score of 43/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for SoundThinking, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, SoundThinking, Inc. is rated at 7.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SSTI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SSTI's 3 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SoundThinking, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

INTAIntapp, Inc.QOC 7.3CMRCCommerce.com, Inc.QOC 7.3BRZEBraze, Inc.QOC 7.3LGCLLucas GC LimitedQOC 7.3SAGTSagtec Global LimitedQOC 7.3SNOWSnowflake Inc.QOC 7.3NRDYNerdy Inc.QOC 6.0GTICGTICQOC 3.8SAPSAP SEQOC 8.9ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: INTA · CMRC · BRZE · LGCL · SAGT · SNOW · NRDY · GTIC · SAP · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SSTI?

6 companies across all industries closest to SSTI’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3DTEDTE Energy CompanyQOC 7.3BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc.QOC 7.3CPRICapri Holdings LimitedQOC 7.3AUBNAuburn National Bancorporation, Inc.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CWST · DTE · BLDR · CPRI · AUBN · NVDA

Where Does SSTI Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

SSTI is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About SoundThinking, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is SoundThinking, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI)'s intrinsic value at $6.98 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.10 to $12.03. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.10 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SSTI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.20, 2 of 3 active models suggest SSTI may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $6.98, 12.6% above the current price of $6.20 — a consensus view that SSTI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SoundThinking, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for SSTI?

SoundThinking, Inc.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SSTI?

CirclFi analyzes SSTI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SSTI?

Of the 3 models currently active on SSTI, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $12.03 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $4.10. CirclFi's published fair value for SSTI is the median of that range, $6.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 113% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SSTI a value trap in 2026?

SoundThinking, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 43/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) has a median fair value of $6.98 — 12.6% above the current price of $6.20 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SSTI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SSTI valuation
  • Financial statements: SoundThinking, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001351636) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SSTI as of ; valuations recomputed .