RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) Fair Value 2026

RLJ · REIT - Hotel & Motel ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) trades at $11.46, versus a $3.63 median fair value across its 8 active models — 68.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RLJ
Price
$11.46
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +13.5% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $3.63, 68.3% below the current price of $11.46. Estimates range from $0.26 to $18.37. RLJ scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. RLJ’s -68.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy RLJ Lodging Trust Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RLJ?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.46)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.95 -56.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.01 +13.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.68 -67.9%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.16 -89.9%
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What Is RLJ's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.26 to $18.37

CirclFi's 8 active models place RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) between $0.26 and $18.37 per share, a spread of 498% of the median. The median of that range — $3.63 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RLJ, against a current price of $11.46.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$0.26median $3.63$18.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$0.26
Most bullish modelPWERM$18.37
Model agreement2 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RLJ. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RLJ, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, RLJ Lodging Trust's intrinsic value is estimated at $3.63. Trading at its current price of $11.46, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -68.3%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +60.3% (fair value: $18.37), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -97.7% ($0.26). The spread between these extremes — +158.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About RLJ?

8 of 13 models are currently active for RLJ. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RLJ is $3.63 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RLJ Rank in REIT - Hotel & Motel?

Among 15 REIT - Hotel & Motel stocks, RLJ ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

The REIT - Hotel & Motel sector introduces analytical considerations specific to REIT businesses. For RLJ Lodging Trust, metrics like net asset value (NAV) premium/discount provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is RLJ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RLJ a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for RLJ Lodging Trust. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, RLJ Lodging Trust earns a quality score of 7.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +158.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RLJ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RLJ's 8 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy RLJ Lodging Trust Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Hotel & Motel Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Hotel & Motel stocks with 13-model coverage

SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.QOC 7.8CLDTChatham Lodging TrustQOC 7.4DRHDiamondRock Hospitality CompanyQOC 7.9PEBPebblebrook Hotel TrustQOC 7.0XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.1INNSummit Hotel Properties, Inc.QOC 6.5IHTInnSuites Hospitality TrustQOC 5.7APLEApple Hospitality REIT, Inc.QOC 8.2HSTHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.4RHPRyman Hospitality Properties, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: SHO · CLDT · DRH · PEB · XHR · INN · IHT · APLE · HST · RHP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RLJ?

7 companies across all industries closest to RLJ’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

SGISomnigroup International Inc.QOC 7.5MICCThe Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.QOC 7.5OLPOne Liberty Properties, Inc.QOC 7.5SIBNSI-BONE, Inc.QOC 7.5JBSJBS N.V.QOC 7.5SUNBSunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SGI · MICC · OLP · SIBN · JBS · SUNB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About RLJ Lodging Trust’s Valuation?

What is RLJ Lodging Trust's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)'s intrinsic value at $3.63 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.26 to $18.37. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RLJ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.46, 2 of 8 active models suggest RLJ may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $3.63, 68.3% below the current price of $11.46 — a consensus view that RLJ is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits RLJ Lodging Trust's business model in REIT - Hotel & Motel.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for RLJ?

RLJ Lodging Trust's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RLJ?

CirclFi analyzes RLJ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RLJ?

Of the 8 models currently active on RLJ, PWERM is the most bullish at $18.37 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $0.26. CirclFi's published fair value for RLJ is the median of that range, $3.63, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 498% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RLJ a value trap in 2026?

RLJ Lodging Trust's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) has a median fair value of $3.63 — 68.3% below the current price of $11.46 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RLJ/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RLJ valuation
  • Financial statements: RLJ Lodging Trust 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001511337) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RLJ as of ; valuations recomputed .

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