Service Properties Trust (SVC) Fair Value 2026

SVC · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Service Properties Trust (SVC) trades at $8.59, approximately 25% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.50. QOC: 5.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SVC
Price
$8.59
Quality Score
5.0/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +175.5% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 5.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Service Properties Trust (SVC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Service Properties Trust (SVC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $1.83, 78.7% below the current price of $8.59. Estimates range from $0.61 to $23.67. SVC scores 5.0/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Service Properties Trust Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$11.50 +33.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$23.67 +175.5%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$1.17 -86.4%
ML-RIV
Medium Conviction
$1.06 -87.7%

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What Is Service Properties Trust (SVC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Service Properties Trust's intrinsic value is estimated at $5.89. Trading at its current price of $8.59, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -31.4%. Model dispersion is worth noting: CUCE targets $23.67 (+175.5%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $0.61 (-92.8%). This +268.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SVC?

8 of 13 models are currently active for SVC. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SVC's intrinsic value at $11.50, implying +33.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SVC Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 182 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, SVC ranks #167 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

The Real Estate Investment Trusts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate investment trust businesses. For Service Properties Trust, metrics like debt-to-EBITDA provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SVC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SVC a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Service Properties Trust. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Service Properties Trust earns a quality score of 5.0/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +268.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SVC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SVC's 8 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Service Properties Trust Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · EPRT · HHH

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Service Properties Trust

What is Service Properties Trust's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Service Properties Trust (SVC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $11.50. The Quality of Company score is 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SVC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.59, 2 of 8 active models suggest SVC may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $1.83, 78.7% below the current price of $8.59 — a consensus view that SVC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Service Properties Trust's business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.0 mean for SVC?

Service Properties Trust's QOC of 5.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SVC?

CirclFi analyzes SVC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SVC a value trap in 2026?

Service Properties Trust's Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Service Properties Trust (SVC) has a median fair value of $1.83 — 78.7% below the current price of $8.59 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SVC/ · Methodology

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