Fortitude Gold Corporation (FTCO) Fair Value 2026

FTCO · Gold ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (43/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Fortitude Gold Corporation (FTCO) trades at $4.90, versus a $0.87 median fair value across its 10 active models — 82.2% below the current price. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 43/100 (WARN). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FTCO
Price
$4.90
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
43/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 43 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Fortitude Gold Corporation (FTCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Fortitude Gold Corporation (FTCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $0.87, 82.2% below the current price of $4.90. Estimates range from $0.19 to $3.13. FTCO scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 43/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FTCO’s -82.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Gold sector median is -28.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Fortitude Gold Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FTCO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.51 -89.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $0.98 -80.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $0.81 -83.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.84 -62.5%
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What Is FTCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $0.19 to $3.13

CirclFi's 10 active models place Fortitude Gold Corporation (FTCO) between $0.19 and $3.13 per share, a spread of 337% of the median. The median of that range — $0.87 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FTCO, against a current price of $4.90.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$0.19median $0.87$3.13
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$0.19
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$3.13
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FTCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FTCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Fortitude Gold Corporation (FTCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fortitude Gold Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $0.87. Trading at its current price of $4.90, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -82.2%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $3.13 (-36.2%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $0.19 (-96.0%). This +59.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Fortitude Gold Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FTCO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for FTCO. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FTCO is $0.87 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FTCO Rank in Gold?

Among 57 Gold stocks, FTCO ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Gold Stocks →

Fortitude Gold Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FTCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FTCO a score of 43/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Fortitude Gold Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fortitude Gold Corporation scores 5.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +59.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FTCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FTCO's 10 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Fortitude Gold Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Gold stocks with 13-model coverage

MAKOMako Mining Corp.QOC 6.0NFGCNew Found Gold Corp.QOC 5.9OGCOceanaGold CorporationQOC 6.1AUGOAura Minerals Inc.QOC 5.8GLDGGoldMining Inc.QOC 6.2GOROGoldgroup Mining Inc.QOC 5.8AUSTAustin Gold Corp.QOC 4.9FNVFranco-Nevada CorporationQOC 2.9RGLDRoyal Gold, Inc.QOC 9.1FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: MAKO · NFGC · OGC · AUGO · GLDG · GORO · AUST · FNV · RGLD · FSM · NEM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FTCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to FTCO’s Quality of Company score of 5.9/10.

AGLagilon health, inc.QOC 5.9CCGCheche Group Inc.QOC 5.9CMCOColumbus McKinnon CorporationQOC 5.9YMTYimutian Inc.QOC 5.9RYTMRhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.9STUBStubHub Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AGL · CCG · CMCO · YMT · RYTM · STUB · NVDA

Where Does FTCO Sit in CirclFi's Gold Rankings?

FTCO is ranked against every other Gold stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Gold stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Fortitude Gold Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Fortitude Gold Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Fortitude Gold Corporation (FTCO)'s intrinsic value at $0.87 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.19 to $3.13. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FTCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.90, 0 of 10 active models suggest FTCO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $0.87, 82.2% below the current price of $4.90 — a consensus view that FTCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Fortitude Gold Corporation's business model in Gold.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for FTCO?

Fortitude Gold Corporation's QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FTCO?

CirclFi analyzes FTCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FTCO?

Of the 10 models currently active on FTCO, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $3.13 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $0.19. CirclFi's published fair value for FTCO is the median of that range, $0.87, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 337% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FTCO a value trap in 2026?

Fortitude Gold Corporation's Value Trap score is 43/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Fortitude Gold Corporation (FTCO) has a median fair value of $0.87 — 82.2% below the current price of $4.90 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FTCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FTCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Fortitude Gold Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001828377) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FTCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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