Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) Fair Value 2026

OESX · Electrical Equipment & Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) trades at $26.63, versus a $18.56 median fair value across its 5 active models — 30.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OESX
Price
$26.63
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $18.56, 30.3% below the current price of $26.63. Estimates range from $0.57 to $56.90. OESX scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OESX’s -30.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Electrical Equipment & Parts sector median is -34.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Orion Energy Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OESX?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $18.56 -30.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $2.95 -88.9%
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What Is OESX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.57 to $56.90

CirclFi's 5 active models place Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) between $0.57 and $56.90 per share, a spread of 304% of the median. The median of that range — $18.56 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OESX, against a current price of $26.63.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.57median $18.56$56.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.57
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$56.90
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OESX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OESX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Orion Energy Systems, Inc. at its current price of $26.63. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $18.56 (-30.3% vs price), with 3 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +113.7% (fair value: $56.90), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -97.9% ($0.57). The spread between these extremes — +211.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About OESX?

5 of 13 models are currently active for OESX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OESX is $18.56 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OESX Rank in Electrical Equipment & Parts?

Among 57 Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, OESX ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks →

As a regulated utility, Orion Energy Systems, Inc. operates in a sector where regulatory lag is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating OESX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is OESX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OESX a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Orion Energy Systems, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Orion Energy Systems, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +211.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OESX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OESX's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Orion Energy Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

FLUXFlux Power Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2EAFGrafTech International Ltd.QOC 5.5TGENTecogen Inc.QOC 6.2ENVXEnovix CorporationQOC 5.5AMPXAmprius Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3SKYXSKYX Platforms Corp.QOC 5.5TET1 Energy Inc.QOC 5.1APWCAsia Pacific Wire & Cable Corporation LimitedQOC 2.6KEKimball Electronics, Inc.QOC 8.3POWLPowell Industries, Inc.QOC 9.6VRTVertiv Holdings CoQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: FLUX · EAF · TGEN · ENVX · AMPX · SKYX · TE · APWC · KE · POWL · VRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OESX?

7 companies across all industries closest to OESX’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

CCMConcord Medical Services Holdings LimitedQOC 6.1OGIOrganigram Global Inc.QOC 6.1LPCNLipocine Inc.QOC 6.1VIAVia Transportation, Inc.QOC 6.1ATOMAtomera IncorporatedQOC 6.1ZKHZKH Group LimitedQOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CCM · OGI · LPCN · VIA · ATOM · ZKH · NVDA

Where Does OESX Sit in CirclFi's Electrical Equipment & Parts Rankings?

OESX is ranked against every other Electrical Equipment & Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Orion Energy Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Orion Energy Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX)'s intrinsic value at $18.56 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.57 to $56.90. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OESX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.63, 2 of 5 active models suggest OESX may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $18.56, 30.3% below the current price of $26.63 — a consensus view that OESX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Orion Energy Systems, Inc.'s business model in Electrical Equipment & Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for OESX?

Orion Energy Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OESX?

CirclFi analyzes OESX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OESX?

Of the 5 models currently active on OESX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $56.90 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.57. CirclFi's published fair value for OESX is the median of that range, $18.56, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 304% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OESX a value trap in 2026?

Orion Energy Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) has a median fair value of $18.56 — 30.3% below the current price of $26.63 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OESX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OESX valuation
  • Financial statements: Orion Energy Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001409375) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OESX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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