Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV) Fair Value 2026

NRGV · Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV) trades at $3.28, approximately 286% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.85. QOC: 5.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NRGV
Price
$3.28
Quality Score
5.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.85 -74.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$0.24 -92.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$0.53 -83.7%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$0.07 -98.0%

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What Is Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.86, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $3.28. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-73.7% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $4.41 (+34.5%), versus First Chicago at $0.07 (-98.0%). This +132.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NRGV?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NRGV. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NRGV's intrinsic value at $0.85, implying -74.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NRGV Rank in Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies?

Among 40 Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies stocks, NRGV ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies Stocks →

As a industrial enterprise, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where working capital efficiency is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NRGV should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NRGV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NRGV a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.5/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +132.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NRGV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NRGV's 11 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.

What is Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.85. The Quality of Company score is 5.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NRGV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.28, 1 of 11 active models suggest NRGV may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.5 mean for NRGV?

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 5.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NRGV?

CirclFi analyzes NRGV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NRGV a value trap in 2026?

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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