Ellomay Capital Ltd. (ELLO) Fair Value 2026

ELLO · Utilities - Renewable ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Ellomay Capital Ltd. (ELLO) trades at $21.00, versus a $14.30 median fair value across its 2 active models — 31.9% below the current price. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.18.

Key Facts

Ticker
ELLO
Price
$21.00
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +21.1% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ellomay Capital Ltd. (ELLO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Ellomay Capital Ltd. (ELLO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $14.30, 31.9% below the current price of $21.00. Estimates range from $3.18 to $25.43. ELLO scores 5.8/10 on fundamental quality and 11/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. ELLO’s -31.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ellomay Capital Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ELLO?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.18 -84.9%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $25.43 +21.1%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Ellomay Capital Ltd. (ELLO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ellomay Capital Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $14.30, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $21.00. While the median implied return is -31.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +106.0% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $25.43 (+21.1%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $3.18 (-84.9%). This +106.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ellomay Capital Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ELLO?

2 of 13 models are currently active for ELLO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ELLO is $14.30 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.18 on its own, implying -84.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ELLO Rank in Utilities - Renewable?

Among 24 Utilities - Renewable stocks, ELLO ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The Utilities - Renewable sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For Ellomay Capital Ltd., metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ELLO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ELLO a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Ellomay Capital Ltd.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ellomay Capital Ltd. scores 5.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +106.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ELLO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ELLO's 2 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ellomay Capital Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Renewable Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Utilities - Renewable stocks with 13-model coverage

CREGSmart Powerr Corp.QOC 6.5MWHSOLV Energy, Inc.QOC 5.5STEMStem, Inc.QOC 6.5XIFRXPLR Infrastructure, LPQOC 5.4FLNCFluence Energy, Inc.QOC 6.6AGIGAbundia Global Impact Group IncQOC 5.4NRGVEnergy Vault Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.0NXXTNextNRG, Inc.QOC 4.4CWENClearway Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6ORAOrmat Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.3

Read investment analysis: CREG · MWH · STEM · XIFR · FLNC · AGIG · NRGV · NXXT · CWEN · ORA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ELLO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ELLO’s Quality of Company score of 5.8/10.

CUECue Biopharma, Inc.QOC 5.8AIRIAir Industries GroupQOC 5.8CCCCC4 Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.8RMTIRockwell Medical, Inc.QOC 5.8PDYNPalladyne AI Corp.QOC 5.8FIRYFiry Inc.QOC 5.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CUE · AIRI · CCCC · RMTI · PDYN · FIRY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ellomay Capital Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Ellomay Capital Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ellomay Capital Ltd. (ELLO)'s intrinsic value at $14.30 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $3.18 to $25.43. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.18 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ELLO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.00, 1 of 2 active models suggest ELLO may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $14.30, 31.9% below the current price of $21.00 — a consensus view that ELLO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ellomay Capital Ltd.'s business model in Utilities - Renewable.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for ELLO?

Ellomay Capital Ltd.'s QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ELLO?

CirclFi analyzes ELLO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ELLO a value trap in 2026?

Ellomay Capital Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Ellomay Capital Ltd. (ELLO) has a median fair value of $14.30 — 31.9% below the current price of $21.00 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ELLO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ELLO valuation
  • Financial statements: Ellomay Capital Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000946394) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ELLO as of ; valuations recomputed .