XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) Fair Value 2026

SAFX · Utilities - Renewable ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) trades at $0.36, versus a $1.79 median fair value across its 4 active models — 399.8% above the current price. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 4/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.70.

Key Facts

Ticker
SAFX
Price
$0.36
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +436.0% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (4/13) may reduce confidence

Is XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $1.79, 399.8% above the current price of $0.36. Estimates range from $0.74 to $1.92. SAFX scores 5.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SAFX’s +399.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy XCF Global, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SAFX?

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.36)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $1.70 +374.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.92 +436.0%
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What Is SAFX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 4 independent models · $0.74 to $1.92

CirclFi's 4 active models place XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) between $0.74 and $1.92 per share, a spread of 66% of the median. The median of that range — $1.79 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SAFX, against a current price of $0.36.

Low · PWERMHigh · CUCE
$0.74median $1.79$1.92
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelPWERM$0.74
Most bullish modelCUCE$1.92
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SAFX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for XCF Global, Inc.. Trading at $0.36 against an estimated intrinsic value of $1.79, 4 of 4 active models flag meaningful upside of +399.8% at the median. The most optimistic model, CUCE, places fair value at $1.92 (+436.0%), while PWERM — the most conservative — estimates $0.74 (+105.3%). This +330.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about XCF Global, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SAFX?

4 of 13 models are currently active for SAFX. All 4 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SAFX is $1.79 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.70 on its own, implying +374.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SAFX Rank in Utilities - Renewable?

Among 24 Utilities - Renewable stocks, SAFX ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

XCF Global, Inc.'s positioning within the Utilities - Renewable segment means that reserve replacement ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SAFX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SAFX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for XCF Global, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, XCF Global, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.3/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +330.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SAFX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SAFX's 4 active models, average confidence is 14%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy XCF Global, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Renewable Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Renewable stocks with 13-model coverage

AGIGAbundia Global Impact Group IncQOC 5.4BEPCBrookfield Renewable CorporationQOC 5.2XIFRXPLR Infrastructure, LPQOC 5.4NRGVEnergy Vault Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.0MWHSOLV Energy, Inc.QOC 5.5WNDWSolarWindow Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.9VGASVerde Clean Fuels, Inc.QOC 4.5WAVEEco Wave Power Global AB (publ)QOC 2.5STEMStem, Inc.QOC 6.5CWENClearway Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6ORAOrmat Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.3

Read investment analysis: AGIG · BEPC · XIFR · NRGV · MWH · WNDW · VGAS · WAVE · STEM · CWEN · ORA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SAFX?

7 companies across all industries closest to SAFX’s Quality of Company score of 5.3/10.

MSAIMultiSensor AI Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.3BRWCBirdie Win CorporationQOC 5.3NIXXNixxy, Inc.QOC 5.3HMHHMH Holding Inc.QOC 5.3LULufax Holding LtdQOC 5.3SKESkeena Resources LimitedQOC 5.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MSAI · BRWC · NIXX · HMH · LU · SKE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About XCF Global, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is XCF Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX)'s intrinsic value at $1.79 — the median of 4 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.74 to $1.92. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.70 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SAFX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.36, 4 of 4 active models suggest SAFX may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $1.79, 399.8% above the current price of $0.36 — a consensus view that SAFX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits XCF Global, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Renewable.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for SAFX?

XCF Global, Inc.'s QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SAFX?

CirclFi analyzes SAFX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SAFX?

Of the 4 models currently active on SAFX, CUCE is the most bullish at $1.92 per share, and PWERM is the most bearish at $0.74. CirclFi's published fair value for SAFX is the median of that range, $1.79, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 66% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SAFX a value trap in 2026?

XCF Global, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) has a median fair value of $1.79 — 399.8% above the current price of $0.36 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SAFX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SAFX valuation
  • Financial statements: XCF Global, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002019793) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SAFX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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