XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) Fair Value 2026

SAFX · Industrial Organic Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) trades at $0.50, approximately 576% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.07. QOC: 4.2/10. 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SAFX
Price
$0.50
Quality Score
4.2/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.2/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $0.21, 57.8% below the current price of $0.50. Estimates range from $0.07 to $2.49. SAFX scores 4.2/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy XCF Global, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
 $0.07 -85.2%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $0.21 -57.8%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
 $0.33 -34.4%

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What Is XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, XCF Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $0.56. Trading at $0.50, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of +13.2%), as 5 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $2.49 (+399.2%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.07 (-85.2%). This +484.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about XCF Global, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SAFX?

7 of 13 models are currently active for SAFX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SAFX's intrinsic value at $0.07, implying -85.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SAFX Rank in Industrial Organic Chemicals?

Among 20 Industrial Organic Chemicals stocks, SAFX ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

XCF Global, Inc.'s positioning within the Industrial Organic Chemicals segment means that book-to-bill ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and services growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SAFX a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for SAFX. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for XCF Global, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, XCF Global, Inc. earns a quality score of 4.2/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +484.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SAFX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SAFX's 7 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy XCF Global, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Organic Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Industrial Organic Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

NEUNewMarket CorpQOC 9.7SXTSensient Technologies CorporatiQOC 9.2WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LPQOC 8.8REXREX American Resources CorporatQOC 8.8MEOHMethanex CorporationQOC 8.6GEVOGevo, Inc.QOC 7.4IFFInternational Flavors & FragranQOC 6.9LODEComstock Inc.QOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: NEU · SXT · WLKP · REX · MEOH

Frequently Asked Questions About XCF Global, Inc.

What is XCF Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.07. The Quality of Company score is 4.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SAFX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.50, 2 of 7 active models suggest SAFX may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $0.21, 57.8% below the current price of $0.50 — a consensus view that SAFX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits XCF Global, Inc.'s business model in Industrial Organic Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.2 mean for SAFX?

XCF Global, Inc.'s QOC of 4.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SAFX?

CirclFi analyzes SAFX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SAFX a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for SAFX at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) has a median fair value of $0.21 — 57.8% below the current price of $0.50 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SAFX/ · Methodology

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