Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) Fair Value 2026

TGEN · Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) trades at $3.95, approximately 367% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.85. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TGEN
Price
$3.95
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$0.85 -78.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$0.64 -83.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.39 -64.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$1.97 -50.2%

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What Is Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tecogen Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.68. Trading at its current price of $3.95, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -57.4%. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $5.13 (+29.8%), versus ML-RIV at $0.38 (-90.4%). This +120.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TGEN?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TGEN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TGEN's intrinsic value at $0.85, implying -78.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TGEN Rank in Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip?

Among 5 Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip stocks, TGEN ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Tecogen Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TGEN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TGEN a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Tecogen Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Tecogen Inc. earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +120.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TGEN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TGEN's 12 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tecogen Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: LII · CARR · JCI · GCDT

Frequently Asked Questions About Tecogen Inc.

What is Tecogen Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.85. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TGEN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.95, 1 of 12 active models suggest TGEN may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tecogen Inc.'s business model in Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for TGEN?

Tecogen Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TGEN?

CirclFi analyzes TGEN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TGEN a value trap in 2026?

Tecogen Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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