NOVONIX Limited (NVX) Fair Value 2026

NVX · Electrical Equipment & Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, NOVONIX Limited (NVX) trades at $3.08. QOC: 5.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NVX
Price
$3.08
Quality Score
5.0/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: Dynamic NAV suggests +123.7% upside with 42% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (1/13) may reduce confidence

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NVX?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $6.89 +123.7%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is NOVONIX Limited (NVX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for NOVONIX Limited. Trading at $3.08 against an estimated intrinsic value of $6.89, 1 of 1 active models flag meaningful upside of +123.7% at the median.

What Do the Models Say About NVX?

1 of 13 models are currently active for NVX. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NVX Rank in Electrical Equipment & Parts?

Among 57 Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, NVX ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks →

The Electrical Equipment & Parts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to utility businesses. For NOVONIX Limited, metrics like regulatory lag provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NVX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NVX a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for NOVONIX Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, NOVONIX Limited earns a quality score of 5.0/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NVX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NVX's 1 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NOVONIX Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

STISolidion Technology, Inc.QOC 5.1GWHESS Tech, Inc.QOC 5.0TET1 Energy Inc.QOC 5.1TOGITurnOnGreen, IncQOC 4.9XPONExpion Energy, Inc.QOC 5.2LTBRLightbridge CorporationQOC 4.9APWCAsia Pacific Wire & Cable Corporation LimitedQOC 2.6KEKimball Electronics, Inc.QOC 8.3FLUXFlux Power Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2POWLPowell Industries, Inc.QOC 9.6VRTVertiv Holdings CoQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: STI · GWH · TE · TOGI · XPON · LTBR · APWC · KE · FLUX · POWL · VRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NVX?

7 companies across all industries closest to NVX’s Quality of Company score of 5.0/10.

ACIUAC Immune SAQOC 5.0GERNGeron CorporationQOC 5.0VVOSVivos Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.0PRAXPraxis Precision Medicines, Inc.QOC 5.0ADVBAdvanced Biomed Inc.QOC 5.0AIMDAinos, Inc.QOC 5.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ACIU · GERN · VVOS · PRAX · ADVB · AIMD · NVDA

Where Does NVX Sit in CirclFi's Electrical Equipment & Parts Rankings?

NVX is ranked against every other Electrical Equipment & Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About NOVONIX Limited’s Valuation?

What is NOVONIX Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for NOVONIX Limited (NVX). The Quality of Company score is 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NVX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.08, 1 of 1 active models suggest NVX may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NOVONIX Limited's business model in Electrical Equipment & Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.0 mean for NVX?

NOVONIX Limited's QOC of 5.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NVX?

CirclFi analyzes NVX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NVX a value trap in 2026?

NOVONIX Limited's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns NOVONIX Limited (NVX) a Quality of Company score of 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NVX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NVX valuation
  • Financial statements: NOVONIX Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001859795) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NVX as of ; valuations recomputed .