U.S. Gold Corp. (USAU) Fair Value 2026

USAU · Metal Mining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, U.S. Gold Corp. (USAU) trades at $14.79, approximately 185% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $5.20. QOC: 5.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
USAU
Price
$14.79
Quality Score
5.0/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +34.0% upside with 14% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 5.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.79)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$5.20 -64.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$6.52 -55.9%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$19.81 +34.0%

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What Is U.S. Gold Corp. (USAU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, U.S. Gold Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $10.11. Trading at $14.79, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -31.7%), as 4 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $20.01 (+35.3%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.49 (-89.9%). This +125.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about U.S. Gold Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About USAU?

7 of 13 models are currently active for USAU. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates USAU's intrinsic value at $5.20, implying -64.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does USAU Rank in Metal Mining?

Among 38 Metal Mining stocks, USAU ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Metal Mining Stocks →

The Metal Mining sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For U.S. Gold Corp., metrics like capacity utilization rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is USAU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns USAU a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for U.S. Gold Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, U.S. Gold Corp. scores 5.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +125.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every USAU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across USAU's 7 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy U.S. Gold Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Metal Mining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Metal Mining stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: SCCO · FCX · ERO · CLF · MP

See all Metal Mining stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About U.S. Gold Corp.

What is U.S. Gold Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, U.S. Gold Corp. (USAU) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $5.20. The Quality of Company score is 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is USAU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.79, 2 of 7 active models suggest USAU may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits U.S. Gold Corp.'s business model in Metal Mining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.0 mean for USAU?

U.S. Gold Corp.'s QOC of 5.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on USAU?

CirclFi analyzes USAU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is USAU a value trap in 2026?

U.S. Gold Corp.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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